{
  "abstract": "We quantify the smallest CO₂ layer that a time-lapse seismic survey pair can detect as a function of repeatability, measured by the normalized root-mean-square (NRMS) difference, in a Sleipner-like synthetic study. Gassmann fluid substitution under four mixing treatments feeds one-dimensional layer models, checked against two-dimensional finite-difference gathers, and calibrated nonrepeatability sets NRMS from 10% to 60%. Detection is a hypothesis test at a false-alarm probability of 0.05, with 1200 null realizations per frequency and noise level and 40 held-out signal realizations in each of 1728 cells, for four detectors: windowed energy, a clean-template matched filter, a generic-template filter, and a small convolutional neural network (CNN). At 30 Hz, a CO₂ saturation of 0.8, and uniform (Reuss) mixing, the energy detector's minimum detectable thickness rises from the 1-m grid floor at NRMS 10% to 4.5 m at 60%, and Voigt mixing roughly doubles the latter. The energy detector's minimum detectable free-phase mass per area rises over the same range from 25 (a censored grid corner) to 253 kg/m², usually at the lowest saturation tested. At 30 and 45 Hz and NRMS of 40% and above, the energy detector and the CNN increasingly exceed the matched filter's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, consistent with signal misalignment; at 15 Hz the matched filter keeps its advantage. At fixed NRMS, in-window reflectivity and host stiffness move the 30-Hz energy-detector threshold, and a consolidated host suppresses detection. Predictions agree with 11 published Sleipner observables within a factor of 1.41, a consistency check rather than validation. Published Sleipner NRMS of 45%–53% lies near the 50% grid level, where energy-detector, matched-filter, and CNN thresholds span 1.8–3.0 m here and typically 1.8–3.6 m over replicate background draws. A credible detection claim states the repeatability, the false-alarm probability, and the detector together.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Moses Olanrewaju Falowo"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/55r2mskxntgzk.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x5qr6s",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "55r2mskxntgzk",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15925/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "CO₂ storage monitoring"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Geophysics and Seismology"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "NRMS"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Sleipner"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "detectability"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "repeatability"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "rock physics"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "signal detection"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "time-lapse seismic"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/15925/download/27589/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-03",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/55r2mskxntgzk.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T12:20:46Z",
      "native_id": "15925",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15925/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Geophysics and Seismology",
      "subfield": "geophysics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Repeatability-dependent detection thresholds for time-lapse seismic CO₂ monitoring",
  "title_text": "Repeatability-dependent detection thresholds for time-lapse seismic CO₂ monitoring",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T12:20:12Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/55r2mskxntgzk",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}