{
  "abstract": "FACSAT-2 Chiribiquete, the second satellite of the Colombian Aerospace Force and the first South American nanosatellite mission dedicated to greenhouse gases, re-entered on 27 October 2025, 926 days after its deployment into a Sun-synchronous orbit, against a declared service life of at least five years and an estimated orbital lifetime of fifteen. The orbital evolution was built from the epochs of the TLEs (two-line elements) of NORAD ID 56205. We reconstruct its decay using its 3696 orbital elements, the solar and geomagnetic indices from the OMNI2 database, and NRLMSISE-00 densities sampled along the orbit. Inverting the drag yields a ballistic coefficient of 72.3 kg/m2 (6% statistical, 20% systematic), equivalent to an effective area of 0.047 m2, consistent with the declared geometry. With it, the model reproduces the trajectory with a root-mean-square error of 7.4 km and, calibrated on 2023-2024 alone, the re-entry with a 28-day out-of-sample error. F10.7 averaged 170.8 sfu over the mission, against the 139 sfu of the environmental scenario derived from the official 2019 forecast, which lengthens the orbital lifetime by x1.52; two co-launched CubeSats give x1.50 and x1.57, a consistency check across objects rather than independent evidence. Imposing quiet geomagnetic conditions returns 102 days, 22% of the shortening, with strong sensitivity to the adopted threshold; a superposed-epoch analysis over 149 storms gives a median drag enhancement of x1.92 for the intense events. We discuss the consequences for the design of FACSAT-3 and for the public communication of a mission's expected lifetime.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.24534",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Santiago Vargas Dominguez"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mara Valentina Angel"
    },
    {
      "name": "Brayan Nicolas Buitrago"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/598k6gvcjpmxe.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.24534",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "598k6gvcjpmxe",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24534",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.EP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.IM"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.SR"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2202|Space Satellite Systems and Control"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214033080",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.24534",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-21",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/598k6gvcjpmxe.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:23:19Z",
      "native_id": "2609.24534",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.24534"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.IM",
      "subfield": "instrumentation-methods"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.EP",
      "subfield": "planetary"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.SR",
      "subfield": "stellar"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Premature re-entry of the FACSAT-2 nanosatellite: orbital decay and attribution to the maximum of solar cycle 25",
  "title_text": "Premature re-entry of the FACSAT-2 nanosatellite: orbital decay and attribution to the maximum of solar cycle 25",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:23:19Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/598k6gvcjpmxe",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}