{
  "abstract": "We study the minimum and maximum expected scores over all adaptive strategies in sequential card guessing with yes/no feedback. A deck contains $n$ labels, each appearing $m$ times, and is shuffled uniformly. The cards are guessed one at a time, and after each guess the player is told only whether it was correct. Always guessing the same label gives exactly $m$ points. How far can the expected score depart from $m$ if all previous feedback is used either to seek or to avoid correct guesses? Diaconis, Graham, and Spiro conjectured that the minimum expectation is $m-o(m)$ as $m\\to\\infty$ with $n$ sufficiently large in terms of $m$, and that, for each fixed $m$, the limit superior of the maximum expectation as $n\\to\\infty$ is at most $(e-1)m$. Writing these extrema as $P^-_{m,n}$ and $P^+_{m,n}$, we prove \\[ 0\\le m-P^-_{m,n}\\le3m^{3/4} \\qquad(n\\ge m\\ge1), \\] and the finite-parameter bound \\[ \\frac{P^+_{m,n}}m\\le\\sum_{k=1}^{n}\\frac1{k!}<e-1 \\] for all positive integers $m,n$. The first bound gives a first-order asymptotic uniform in $n\\ge m$; the universal constant $e-1$ in the second cannot be reduced. Thus both conjectures follow. The lower bound combines a switching comparison for restricted permutations with martingale second-moment estimates. For the upper bound, we represent the repeated cards as a random interleaving of independent decks of distinct cards and prove that the optimal expectation is additive when the component-deck labels are revealed.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.25062",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Congyi Luo"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5fh1chcwj1qhe.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.25062",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "5fh1chcwj1qhe",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25062",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "math.CO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "math.PR"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.25062",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-14",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5fh1chcwj1qhe.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:23:43Z",
      "native_id": "2609.25062",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25062"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:math.CO",
      "subfield": "combinatorics"
    },
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:math.PR",
      "subfield": "probability"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Extremal expectations in card guessing with partial feedback: proofs of two conjectures of Diaconis-Graham-Spiro",
  "title_text": "Extremal expectations in card guessing with partial feedback: proofs of two conjectures of Diaconis-Graham-Spiro",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:23:43Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5fh1chcwj1qhe",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}