{
  "abstract": "Version 1.1: the file arxiv-meta-research_code-data_v1.0.zip was replaced to redact a local file path (a Windows user name) from its contents. No other change. REDACTION_NOTE.md lists the file hashes before and after.\n\nEmbedding-based science mapping places every paper in a shared semantic space, inviting a forecasting inference: two communities drifting together should foreshadow their fusion. We subject that inference to a pre-registered retrodiction test, treating known cross-field fusions in mathematics and mathematical physics as forecasting targets and asking whether an abstract-level proximity signal rises in the years before the catalytic paper — every success criterion, term set, null model, and verdict fixed in a locked pre-registration before any similarity is computed.\n\nRun naively, the instrument would have supported a positive headline; over a five-case campaign we found and killed several apparent precursors — a saturated above-null proximity that passes a level test trivially, an anti-proximal z ≈ −4 that measures set coherence rather than intellectual distance, and a z-score descent that is an artifact of a growing set scored against a shrinking null. The paper's primary contribution generalizes these into a taxonomy of nine artifact classes, each with its exposing case, its guard, and its observable signature, in a reusable guard cascade. On the two fusion events the cascade admits as fully scoreable — one import-type (three channels), one convergence-type, the latter guard-complete from birth and verdict-grade at null — abstract-embedding proximity shows no above-random prospective convergence signal, a null that a two-directionally-validated coherence control separates from the artifacts.\n\nWe state the result at exactly its scope: on these two events, at yearly-to-semi-annual resolution, with one embedding model on abstract-level text, semantic proximity carries no prospective fusion precursor — not a general law that field fusions are semantically unforecastable. The durable output is the instrument, its artifact taxonomy, and a governance ledger in which the same pre-declared machinery corrects the pipeline, its human advisor, and its operator alike: a demonstration that a fully disciplined science-mapping pipeline can produce a trustworthy negative.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Papanokechi",
      "orcid": "0009-0000-6192-8273"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5gqcpg6bz39k0.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23519866",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "5gqcpg6bz39k0",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23519866",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://zenodo.org/api/records/23519866/files/methods_paper.pdf/content",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-20",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5gqcpg6bz39k0.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:20:27Z",
      "native_id": "23519866",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23519866"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "A pre-registered, guard-cascaded instrument for retrodicting cross-field fusions in the arXiv corpus: nine artifact classes and a verdict-grade null for abstract-semantic fusion precursors",
  "title_text": "A pre-registered, guard-cascaded instrument for retrodicting cross-field fusions in the arXiv corpus: nine artifact classes and a verdict-grade null for abstract-semantic fusion precursors",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-03T12:20:27Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5gqcpg6bz39k0",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}