{
  "abstract": "Thwaites Glacier is a major contributor to Antarctic mass loss and a key source of uncertainty in future sea-level rise. Ocean-driven melting at its grounding line drives rapid retreat, yet most models treat the transition between grounded and floating ice as a sharp boundary, neglecting kilometer-scale seawater intrusions that develop as the grounding line migrates and forms a grounding zone. Here, we show that actively-melting grounding zones are required to reproduce nearly three decades of observed retreat, thinning, and acceleration of Thwaites Glacier in a calibrated ice-sheet model, with successful reconstruction occurring only when grounding zones are represented as 2-5 km wide regions. Extending this model forward, we show that grounding-zone processes govern glacier’s detachment from stabilizing seafloor ridges, enabling unpinning as early as 2038 and producing up to 30 ± 6 mm of global mean sea-level rise by 2100 - approximately double previous projections even without additional climate warming.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Mattia Poinelli",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0637-2166"
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Rignot",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3366-0481"
    },
    {
      "name": "Hélène Seroussi",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9201-1644"
    },
    {
      "name": "Joshua Cuzzone"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tyler Pelle"
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Larour",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4009-4238"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5r0xnndcg1z17.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "5r0xnndcg1z17",
  "issns": [
    "2041-1723"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-77976-1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Cryospheric studies and observations"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221550600",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-77976-1.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-12",
  "publisher": "Springer Science and Business Media LLC",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5r0xnndcg1z17.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:38Z",
      "native_id": "10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-77976-1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1902|Cryospheric studies and observations",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model",
  "title_text": "Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:38Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5r0xnndcg1z17",
  "venue": "Nature Communications",
  "versions": []
}