{
  "abstract": "Despite the proliferation of sovereign Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics, traditional linear macro-financial models systematically misprice Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) tail risks during systemic shocks. This paper demonstrates that sovereign risk transmission is fundamentally non-linear. Using a forward-chained global panel of 147 sovereign entities (2010-2024), we deploy a gradient boosting architecture that compresses forecast errors by over 39% against L1-regularized baselines precisely during extreme macroeconomic tail events. Moving beyond opaque predictive accuracy, we apply dual interpretability frameworks to mathematically map the discrete threshold effects of institutional quality. We identify a strict, non-linear \"Governance Premium\": incremental environmental and social improvements yield zero capital advantage until a foundational regulatory threshold is breached. Finally, we establish regime-conditional 95% uncertainty bounds that maintain valid marginal coverage even under severe ESG reporting failures. This framework equips policymakers with a distribution-free tool to quantify sovereign tail-risk, proving that global capital markets price institutional resilience as a discrete boundary rather than a continuous premium.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.35895",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Sourav Bose"
    },
    {
      "name": "Taoufik Bouraoui"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5v6vye1nw6kaw.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.35895",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "5v6vye1nw6kaw",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.35895",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.AI"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "econ.EM"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.35895",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5v6vye1nw6kaw.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:35:59Z",
      "native_id": "2610.35895",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.35895"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Beyond Greenwashing: Algorithmic Resilience and the Non-Linear Governance Premium in Sovereign Capital Flows",
  "title_text": "Beyond Greenwashing: Algorithmic Resilience and the Non-Linear Governance Premium in Sovereign Capital Flows",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:35:59Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5v6vye1nw6kaw",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}