{
  "abstract": "This paper investigates the determinants of head coach turnover in the Italian Serie A over the period 2010-2019 by explicitly accounting for multiple exit mechanisms within a competing risks framework. Four mutually exclusive exit types are considered: end of contract, mutual consent, resignation, and sacking. To identify robust predictors of turnover, we combine classical cause-specific Cox models with a variable selection procedure based on forward selection, LASSO regression, and Random Survival Forests. The results show that performance-related variables are the primary drivers of coach turnover, while personal characteristics play a limited role once performance is controlled for. Short-term performance indicators, such as points per match until turnover, strongly influence the risk of dismissal. Conversely, cumulative poor performance substantially increases dismissal risk: a higher proportion of losses over a coach's tenure raises the hazard of sacking by more than four times. Season timing also plays a crucial role, as sackings and mutual-consent terminations are significantly more likely to occur during the season, whereas contract expirations concentrate at the end of the season. Overall, the findings highlight that clubs differentiate between short-term performance shocks and longer-term performance trajectories when deciding how and when to replace a head coach. By distinguishing among exit mechanisms and adopting a conservative variable selection strategy, the study provides a robust and nuanced assessment of managerial turnover dynamics in the most important Italian professional football league.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": "Journal reference: Journal of Big Data (2026) 13:109",
  "arxiv": "2611.04572",
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Francesco Porro"
    },
    {
      "name": "Marialuisa Restaino"
    },
    {
      "name": "Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mariangela Zenga"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5xyhdj7kvfpb2.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2611.04572",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "5xyhdj7kvfpb2",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.04572",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2611.04572",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-03",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5xyhdj7kvfpb2.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T15:21:34Z",
      "native_id": "2611.04572",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.04572"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.ME",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Identifying the determinants of soccer coach turnover by competing risks models: a case study on Italian League Serie A",
  "title_text": "Identifying the determinants of soccer coach turnover by competing risks models: a case study on Italian League Serie A",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-06T18:21:10Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5xyhdj7kvfpb2",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": [
    {
      "doi": "10.1186/s40537-026-01417-5",
      "pid": null,
      "relation": "published-as",
      "title": null,
      "venue": null
    }
  ]
}