{
  "abstract": "Multimodal Parkinson disease models can improve internally while obscuring why patients differ and whether a gain is deployable. We separated clinical trajectories, dated biological sources, observation process and cohort-relative, age-weighted evidence for dopaminergic, injury/glial, cognitive co-pathology and lysosomal burden across 5,404 cutoffs in 1,058 Parkinsons Progression Markers Initiative participants. DaT-SPECT and MoCA history produced a small 12-month motor-change gain ({Delta}R2 = 0.015; delta MAE=-0.060) that failed prespecified magnitude and strict-calendar criteria. Continuous evidence retained overlapping support but showed no detectable predictive increment beyond raw sources. Source-aware intervals achieved 90.6% simultaneous participant coverage yet failed selective prediction, yielding ABSTAIN. In 8,000 semisynthetic experiments, the gate limited null promotion to 0.35%, detected leakage and blocked 94.75% of calendar reversals; PDBP clinical transport and multimodal eligibility failed. The framework reveals state support, stale or missing evidence, and unjustified prognostic, uncertainty or transport claims.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "university oh texas at austin"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "H. Tirhekar"
    },
    {
      "name": "P. Yadav"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "C. L. bajaj"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5yasceh3g0gnj.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.23.26363849",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363849v1.full",
  "id": "5yasceh3g0gnj",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363849v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "health informatics"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2728|Parkinson's Disease Mechanisms and Treatments"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214405057",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363849v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-23",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5yasceh3g0gnj.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:23Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.23.26363849",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363849v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:health informatics",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Validity Gates Expose Limits of Longitudinal Multimodal Parkinson Disease Prediction",
  "title_text": "Validity Gates Expose Limits of Longitudinal Multimodal Parkinson Disease Prediction",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:23Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/5yasceh3g0gnj",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}