{
  "abstract": "Cross-species molecular transfer may improve prognostic modeling in rare cancers, but under severe target-event scarcity the same data can easily be used to fit, choose, and evaluate adaptation, increasing the risk of negative transfer and model-selection bias. We evaluated canine-to-human osteosarcoma survival transfer using a chronologically frozen design. DOG2 served as the canine source domain, 50 MSigDB Hallmark modules defined the shared representation, and a known-truth benchmark comprised 180 scenarios and 21,600 replicates spanning 5 - 40 target events and multiple transport regimes. A frozen safety rule compared low-rank and module-selective adaptation; later diagnostics and a 6,000-replicate disjoint-seed mechanism experiment could not alter that decision. Neither selectable architecture met the negative-transfer limit (0.215 and 0.486 versus 0.10), although oracle analyses showed that the threshold was attainable. Prespecified post-HOLD weighting and threshold sensitivities showed that benchmark composition amplified the magnitude of A3 failure but did not create its instability, whereas A2 was comparatively insensitive to weighting. Training-set prognostic compatibility identified generator regimes (AUROC 0.980) but did not reliably order transfer benefit versus harm. Prediction-time gate hardening improved discrimination and reduced negative transfer, although its composite criterion was not met. Outcome-blind DOG2 - TARGET analysis showed heterogeneous Hallmark preservation. In 86 TARGET cases with 29 events, the frozen canine classical model had IBS 0.159 versus 0.166 for a fold-local no-covariate Kaplan - Meier reference, while the human interpretation remained unresolved. Measurable prognostic compatibility therefore did not guarantee safe architecture-level transfer utility.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Lakehead University"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "E. Krikun"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Alkhateeb"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/61fs8ede93btx.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.17.752483",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.17.752483v1.full",
  "id": "61fs8ede93btx",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.17.752483v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "bioinformatics"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2740|Veterinary Oncology Research"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214243278",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.17.752483v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-17",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/61fs8ede93btx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:24:20Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.17.752483",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.17.752483v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:bioinformatics",
      "subfield": "bioinformatics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "When Prognostic Compatibility Does Not Guarantee Transfer Utility in Event-Limited Cross-Species Survival Modeling",
  "title_text": "When Prognostic Compatibility Does Not Guarantee Transfer Utility in Event-Limited Cross-Species Survival Modeling",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:24:20Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/61fs8ede93btx",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}