{
  "abstract": "Long local weather records can reveal changes in drought exposure, but a drought index calculated at one station must be distinguished from soil-water measurements across a forest. We updated daily temperature and precipitation observations at Tallahassee airport and recomputed the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) with explicit quality control, rainfall interception, and missing-data rules. Across 69 complete eligible annual records spanning 1945-2024, mean moisture deficit increased by 2.63 mm per decade (95% interval: 0.58-4.67), and the annual number of days with KBDI above 650 increased by 2.59 days per decade (0.67-4.51). May showed the clearest monthly drying signal after adjustment for 12 monthly comparisons: 4.64 mm per decade (1.68-7.61; adjusted p = 0.031). April’s trend remained uncertain. May slopes stayed positive across 27 tested KBDI settings, although uncertainty in high-deficit-day trends depended on the record’s starting year. A historical 2009-2018 PRISM comparison showed airport-forest daily anomaly correspondence, with an area-weighted squared correlation of 0.72. As an application, April 30 moisture deficit reduced point-estimate hindcast error for May-July natural-fire counts, but the paired skill interval included no improvement. The strongest evidence therefore concerns increasing station-derived drought exposure and its seasonal structure. It does not establish a forest-wide soil-moisture trend, an anthropogenic attribution, or a validated operational wildfire forecast",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "James B Elsner"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/61mpnj28e64ak.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x5t80m",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "61mpnj28e64ak",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15556/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Keetch-Byram Drought Index; station record; moisture deficit; seasonal drought; wildfire; Florida"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Physical Sciences and Mathematics"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Hydrology and Drought Analysis"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7222697275",
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/15556/download/26956/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-17",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/61mpnj28e64ak.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:46Z",
      "native_id": "15556",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15556/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Hydrology and Drought Analysis",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Long-term increases in station-derived drought near Apalachicola National Forest, Florida",
  "title_text": "Long-term increases in station-derived drought near Apalachicola National Forest, Florida",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:46Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/61mpnj28e64ak",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}