{
  "abstract": "Intensive care unit (ICU) control of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) occurs over short horizons, whereas \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_0$$\\end{document}R0 summarizes average transmission at the importation-free disease-free state without encoding timing. We couple within-host bacterial and immune dynamics to an ICU model structured by colonization age, generating transmission and progression kernels that vary with colonization age. A two-stage framework uses a branching process to quantify finite-threshold crossing and a deterministic ward model to quantify conditional burden after the threshold is reached. Calibration fixes η =0.10η=0.10 and distributes colonized admissions across pre-admission colonization ages. Of 1, 000, 000 parameter sets, 45, 250 satisfy cumulative \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R^2\\ge 0.90$$\\end{document}R2≥0.90. The representative calculation is subcritical, with \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_0=0.907957$$\\end{document}R0=0.907957; across accepted sets, the median and 95% behavioral range are 0.917464 and [0.814593, 1.032975][0.814593,1.032975], with 92.460%92.460% below one. At \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$Z_{\\textrm{crit}}=5$$\\end{document}Zcrit=5, exact threshold-reaching probabilities are 0.114659 for age-dependent transmission and 0.117074 for matched constant transmission. Their accepted-set difference range crosses zero, so this contrast has no robust direction. By contrast, age-dependent transmission reaches 50% of reproductive potential earlier in 98.378%98.378% of accepted sets. In 200-day conditional simulations, delaying \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\tau _{\\textrm{crit}}$$\\end{document}τcrit from 5 to 15 days increases the age-dependent peak total MRSA burden from 5.629 to 7.298 patients and cumulative total burden from 683.8 to 1398.0 patient-days. At the 9-day baseline and equal \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_0$$\\end{document}R0, age dependence gives a 7.372%7.372% higher peak but a 9.304%9.304% lower cumulative burden than constant transmission. Increasing \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\kappa _{\\max }$$\\end{document}κmax from 0.6 to 1.4 times baseline reduces \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_0$$\\end{document}R0 by 4.133%4.133%. Thus, matching \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_0$$\\end{document}R0 does not preserve timing-sensitive outcomes, but their magnitude and direction depend on the endpoint; over the examined ranges, clearance timing has greater leverage than immune-strength intensification.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "F.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA. Taye.Faniran@ucsf.edu."
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Taye Samuel Faniran"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/65pty22vm8wcb.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1007/s11538-026-01770-9",
  "fulltext_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13719866",
  "id": "65pty22vm8wcb",
  "issns": [
    "0092-8240",
    "1522-9602"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42955490",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Original Research"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2725|Antimicrobial Resistance in Staphylococcus"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7224306639",
  "pdf_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13719866?pdf=render",
  "pmcid": "PMC13719866",
  "pmid": "42955490",
  "published": "2026-10-28",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/65pty22vm8wcb.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-01T00:20:36Z",
      "native_id": "MED:42955490",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42955490"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-02T12:23:45Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13719866",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-026-01770-9"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2725|Antimicrobial Resistance in Staphylococcus",
      "subfield": "infectious-disease"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Same R 0 , Different Risk: Colonization-Age Timing and Heterogeneity Drive ICU MRSA Establishment and Burden.",
  "title_text": "Same R 0 , Different Risk: Colonization-Age Timing and Heterogeneity Drive ICU MRSA Establishment and Burden.",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-03T12:20:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/65pty22vm8wcb",
  "venue": "Bulletin of mathematical biology",
  "versions": []
}