{
  "abstract": "Warm Jupiters are an intriguing class of planets with uncertain origins. Their planetary obliquities could help distinguish between different formation pathways: planet-planet scattering and migration across resonances can excite large obliquities, whereas in-situ formation would more naturally produce low obliquities. We searched for oblateness-related anomalies in the transit light curves of six observationally favorable warm Jupiters: TOI-201b, TOI-1670c, TOI-199b, Kepler-9c, Kepler-30c, and Kepler-553c. Each planet's light curve is consistent with a spherical planet and provides degenerate constraints on the planet's sky-projected oblateness and obliquity. To overcome these limitations, we performed hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the population-level obliquity distribution. Assuming warm Jupiters are as oblate as Saturn ($f \\approx 0.1$), we find their median obliquity to be below $12^\\circ$ with $90$% confidence and below Saturn's obliquity ($27^\\circ$) with $93$% confidence. Jupiter-like oblateness ($f \\approx 0.06$) and larger obliquities are allowed. Simulations of JWST observations predict that significantly tighter constraints can be derived.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.01599",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Caleb Lammers"
    },
    {
      "name": "Joshua N. Winn"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/65q3f00kchg6f.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.01599",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "65q3f00kchg6f",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01599",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.EP"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.01599",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-17",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/65q3f00kchg6f.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:23:03Z",
      "native_id": "2609.01599",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01599"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.EP",
      "subfield": "planetary"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Constraining the Planetary Obliquity Distribution of Warm Jupiters",
  "title_text": "Constraining the Planetary Obliquity Distribution of Warm Jupiters",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:23:03Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/65q3f00kchg6f",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}