{
  "abstract": "Clinical trials often show treatment curves that diverge early and converge later, or vice versa patterns that are poorly captured by the proportional-hazards assumption. We develop a joint inferential framework for two nonparametric functionals of censored survival data: the Kaplan--Meier-based Mann--Whitney effect and a novel temporal contrast separating early and late differences. The approach provides interpretable, probability-scale effect measures and enables joint inference for global and temporal contrasts under right censoring. In simulation studies, the method outperforms the log-rank test under non-proportional hazards while maintaining nominal type-I error. A real-world application illustrates how the temporal contrast reveals clinically meaningful early treatment advantages that remain hidden in standard analyses",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.02596",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Patrick B. Langthaler"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jun Ma"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jonas Beck"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6gq0n7v1fdqj4.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.02596",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "6gq0n7v1fdqj4",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02596",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2613|Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7207646883",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.02596",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-02",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6gq0n7v1fdqj4.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:26Z",
      "native_id": "2609.02596",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02596"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.ME",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Detecting Early and Late Divergences in Survival Curves Using Nonparametric Effect Measures",
  "title_text": "Detecting Early and Late Divergences in Survival Curves Using Nonparametric Effect Measures",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:26Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6gq0n7v1fdqj4",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}