{
  "abstract": "Statistical post-processing can calibrate the individual components of an ensemble forecast but may also distort relationships between forecast dimensions. This paper proposes Score-Optimized Copula Coupling, which rearranges calibrated forecast samples according to an optimized dependence structure to restore potentially lost dependencies. We assess fixed and adaptively updated versions using wind-speed and temperature forecasts. In the variable-specific spatial case studies, all versions significantly outperform the strongest benchmarks, with improvements of 1.08-2.02 percent in energy score and 5.45-7.97 percent in variogram score. A third case study at 24 co-located stations shows that one optimized structure can represent both spatial and inter-variable relationships. The largest energy and variogram score improvements are 3.98 and 3.69 percent for spatial dependence and 1.16 and 1.06 percent for inter-variable dependence; all are statistically significant. Additional calibration terms improve covariance representation but can reduce gains in the other scores.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.24591",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Mária Lakatos"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6j4pfxexp893k.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.24591",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "6j4pfxexp893k",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24591",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223000485",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.24591",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-23",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6j4pfxexp893k.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:35:25Z",
      "native_id": "2610.24591",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24591"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Score-optimized copula coupling for multivariate ensemble post-processing",
  "title_text": "Score-optimized copula coupling for multivariate ensemble post-processing",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:35:25Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6j4pfxexp893k",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}