{
  "abstract": "Decadal changes in the Antarctic stratosphere, generally associated with ozone recovery and shifts in polar circulation, are of broad geophysical interest. However, independent long-term measurements of the atmosphere above the Antarctic interior are scarce. We assess whether the atmospheric muon rate recorded by IceCube could constrain decadal changes in the effective atmospheric temperature, $T_\\mathrm{eff}$, a weighted average of temperature through the atmosphere that is most sensitive to the stratosphere. Using public atmospheric reanalysis data and records of cosmic-ray, solar, and geomagnetic variability, we reproduce the measured seasonal response of the IceCube muon rate. We then test whether the same response applies to long-term temperature changes with a different vertical temperature profile. The limiting requirement is detector stability rather than counting statistics: an unmodeled muon rate drift of $1\\%\\,\\mathrm{decade^{-1}}$ would mimic a temperature trend of $2.8\\,\\mathrm{K\\,decade^{-1}}$. The long-term rate must therefore be stable to approximately $0.3\\%\\,\\mathrm{decade^{-1}}$. Within this budget, snow accumulation contributions can be constrained. For a 14-year record, atmospheric variability gives a one-sided 95% CL statistical sensitivity of $1.6\\,\\mathrm{K\\,decade^{-1}}$. Given this sensitivity, the $\\sim0.9\\,\\mathrm{K\\,decade^{-1}}$ cooling indicated by the 2011-2025 atmospheric records would become distinguishable after approximately 30 years of measurement.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2611.00918",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Tanvi Krishnan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Gabriela Barenboim"
    },
    {
      "name": "Carlos A. Argüelles"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6rc2vzczwp7rd.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2611.00918",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "6rc2vzczwp7rd",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.00918",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.EP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.HE"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "hep-ph"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2611.00918",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6rc2vzczwp7rd.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:20:59Z",
      "native_id": "2611.00918",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.00918"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.HE",
      "subfield": "high-energy-astrophysics"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.EP",
      "subfield": "planetary"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:hep-ph",
      "subfield": "high-energy"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Sensitivity of the IceCube atmospheric muon rate to decadal trends in the effective atmospheric temperature",
  "title_text": "Sensitivity of the IceCube atmospheric muon rate to decadal trends in the effective atmospheric temperature",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T15:20:18Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6rc2vzczwp7rd",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}