{
  "abstract": "Food systems exert significant stress on planetary boundaries1–3 while healthy diets are currently unaffordable for billions worldwide4. These challenges are expected to continue under global population trends, projected to reach 9.6 billion by mid-century5. Food systems must therefore transform in pursuit of health and sustainability goals6–8. However, the scale and distribution of this transformation on agriculture is underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, an EAT-Lancet style food systems transformation results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multi-model ensemble of 10 global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land of 274Mha (+1 to -26%, +48 to -1257Mha) compared to 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 2 to 32% (-0.2x109 to -3.7x109 tonnes) lower than business-as-usual projections, and economically, the value of this production shows a 26% median relative decline of $1.6tn in USD2020 (+8% to -58%, +$0.5tn to -$2.9tn USD2020) Within this, the value of livestock production would fall substantially (-$1tn to -$2.2tn, -49% to -83%). These results reinforce the need for a more active role for food policy and stakeholder dialogue to catalyse such a transformation and navigate the political economic consequences of its impacts.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Cornell University",
    "Department of Global Development & Cornell Atkinson Centre for Sustainability, Cornell University",
    "Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)",
    "Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University",
    "Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)",
    "Purdue University",
    "PBL",
    "International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)",
    "Kyoto University",
    "Ritsumeikan University",
    "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis",
    "European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)",
    "NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies",
    "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)",
    "Wageningen Social & Economic Research, Wageningen University and Research (WUR)",
    "Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research",
    "University of Illinois",
    "U.S. Department of Agriculture",
    "University of Oxford",
    "PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency",
    "International Food Policy Research Institute",
    "National Institute for Environmental Studies",
    "Thuenen-Institute of Farm Economics",
    "Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association",
    "Wageningen Univ",
    "Purdue",
    "Wageningen University and Research",
    "Pacific Northwest National Laboratory",
    "Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 49,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Matthew Gibson",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1127-001X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Marina Sundiang",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1523-3750"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Daniel Mason-D'Croz",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0673-2301"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Thais Diniz Oliveira",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2716-0237"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Felicitas Beier"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Lauren Benavidez",
      "orcid": "0009-0009-9348-8394"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Astrid Bos"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Maksym G. Chepeliev",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8585-2314"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Jonathan Doelman",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6842-573X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7
      ],
      "name": "Shahnila Dunston",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3589-3350"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        8
      ],
      "name": "Shinichiro Fujimori",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7897-1796"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Tomoko Hasegawa",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2456-5789"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        10
      ],
      "name": "Peter Havlík",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5551-5085"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Jordan Hristov",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9303-5645"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        12
      ],
      "name": "Jonas Jägermeyr",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8368-0018"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        13
      ],
      "name": "Marta Kozicka",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2323-3689"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        14
      ],
      "name": "Marijke Kuiper",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2218-0212"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        13
      ],
      "name": "Ipsita Kumar",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6193-7927"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        14
      ],
      "name": "Thijs de Lange",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-1599-7037"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "Benjamin Leon Bodirsky",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8242-6712"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "Hermann Lotze‐Campen",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0003-5508"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Hermen Luchtenbelt",
      "orcid": "0009-0001-2551-1582"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "David Chen",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5939-9093"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "Abhijeet Mishra",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8287-9922"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "Christoph Müller",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9491-3550"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        16
      ],
      "name": "Gerald Charles Nelson",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3626-1221"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Ignácio Pérez Domínguez",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0279-6263"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "Alexander Popp",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9500-1986"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        17
      ],
      "name": "Ronald D. Sands",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2864-0339"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        18
      ],
      "name": "Marco Springmann",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6028-5712"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        19
      ],
      "name": "Elke Stehfest",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3016-2679"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        20
      ],
      "name": "Timothy B. Sulser",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7128-5283"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        21
      ],
      "name": "Kiyoshi Takahashi",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0163-545X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Gianmaria Tassinari",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0856-2561"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        22
      ],
      "name": "Ferike Thom",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0359-7781"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Philip K. Thornton",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1854-0182"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        23
      ],
      "name": "Jake Tommey"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        21
      ],
      "name": "Kazuaki Tsuchiya",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8046-2974"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        14
      ],
      "name": "Willem‐Jan van Zeist",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6371-8509"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        24
      ],
      "name": "Hans van Meijl",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2455-6869"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        25
      ],
      "name": "Dominique Y van der Mensbrugghe",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9737-8397"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        13
      ],
      "name": "Amanda Palazzo",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8167-9403"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        19
      ],
      "name": "Hannah H.E. van Zanten",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5262-5518"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        26
      ],
      "name": "Hannah H.E. van Zanten",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5262-5518"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "Isabelle Weindl",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7651-6930"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7
      ],
      "name": "Keith Wiebe"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        27
      ],
      "name": "Xin Zhao",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1801-4393"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        28
      ],
      "name": "Page G. Kyle",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1257-8358"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Mario Herrero",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7741-5090"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6thwph1p666nx.bib",
  "cited_by": 7,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "6thwph1p666nx",
  "issns": [
    "0028-0836",
    "1476-4687"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2303|Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7168393488",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10775-2.pdf",
  "pmcid": "PMC13538146",
  "pmid": "42457963",
  "published": "2026-07-15",
  "publisher": "Nature Portfolio",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6thwph1p666nx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-05T13:21:10Z",
      "native_id": "W7168393488",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "openalex:2303|Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture",
  "title_text": "Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-06T13:20:42Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/6thwph1p666nx",
  "venue": "Nature",
  "versions": []
}