{ "abstract": "Forecasts of whether marine species can evolve fast enough to survive climate change rely largely on single-stage tolerance assays, tacitly assuming that tolerance measured at one developmental stage reflects adaptive capacity across the organism’s life cycle. We test this assumption in a common marine bivalve (Mercenaria mercenaria) and find that it fails in sign, not degree: larval and post-metamorphic tolerance to end-century ocean acidification are strongly negatively correlated (r = −0.53, 95% CI [−0.69, −0.33]) across family-level, pedigree-conditioned and animal model estimates, with pervasive rank reversals among the top performers of each stage. A multivariate analysis of the among-family covariance matrix G shows why: under acidification, 57% of the among-family variance collapses onto a single dominant axis that loads positively on every larval trait and negatively on every post-metamorphic trait, whereas under ambient conditions the same families show no cross-stage covariance at all. Acidification therefore does not merely depress performance—it reorganizes the genetic architecture into a cross-stage conflict. Under ramping RCP 8.5 forcing this conflict geometry dictates the direction—not merely the magnitude—of adaptation: only balanced multi-stage selection preserves family diversity, whereas single-stage selection systematically erodes the opposite axis. In complex life cycles, resilience is a geometric property of ontogeny that forecasts cannot compress into a single-stage without inverting the sign of the answer.\n\nForecasts of whether marine species can survive climate change rely largely on tolerance assays at one developmental stage. This study of the tolerance of an animal with a complex life cycle to end-century ocean acidification reveals cross-stage conflicts that impact the direction and magintude of adaptation.", "abstract_shown": true, "affiliations": [ "Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China", "School of Marine Sciences, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China", "Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao, China", "State Key Laboratory of Breeding Biotechnology and Sustainable Aquaculture, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China", "University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China", "Marine Animal Disease Laboratory, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, United States of America", "Institute of Marine Science, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand", "Lianyungang Zhongke Meibei Marine Technology Co., Ltd, Lianyungang, China" ], "article_type": "Research Article", "arxiv": null, "author_total": 11, "authors": [ { "affs": [ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 ], "name": "Hao Song", "orcid": "0000-0003-2197-1562" }, { "affs": [ 0, 4 ], "name": "Tingyu Shi" }, { "affs": [ 0, 1, 2, 4 ], "name": "Meijie Yang" }, { "affs": [ 0 ], "name": "Xiaoyan Liu" }, { "affs": [ 0, 4 ], "name": "Zhuoqing Li" }, { "affs": [ 0, 2 ], "name": "Pu Shi" }, { "affs": [ 0, 4 ], "name": "Yu Wu" }, { "affs": [ 5 ], "name": "Bassem Allam" }, { "affs": [ 6 ], "name": "Andrew Jeffs", "orcid": "0000-0002-8504-1949" }, { "affs": [ 6 ], "name": "Bradley Skelton", "orcid": "0000-0001-6913-7687" }, { "affs": [ 1, 7 ], "name": "Tao Zhang" } ], "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/71tg695nvy20g.bib", "cited_by": 0, "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079", "fulltext_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079", "id": "71tg695nvy20g", "issns": [ "1545-7885", "1544-9173" ], "landing_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079", "language": "en", "licence": "CC-BY-4.0", "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0", "licence_source": "article", "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "metadata_licence": null, "native_subjects": [ [ "heading", "Animal Models" ], [ "heading", "Animal Studies" ], [ "heading", "Biology and Life Sciences" ], [ "heading", "Covariance" ], [ "heading", "Developmental Biology" ], [ "heading", "Earth Sciences" ], [ "heading", "Ecology" ], [ "heading", "Ecology and Environmental Sciences" ], [ "heading", "Evolutionary Biology" ], [ "heading", "Evolutionary Processes" ], [ "heading", "Experimental Organism Systems" ], [ "heading", "Genetics" ], [ "heading", "Larvae" ], [ "heading", "Life Cycles" ], [ "heading", "Marine Biology" ], [ "heading", "Marine Ecology" ], [ "heading", "Marine and Aquatic Sciences" ], [ "heading", "Mathematics" ], [ "heading", "Metamorphosis" ], [ "heading", "Natural Selection" ], [ "heading", "Physical Sciences" ], [ "heading", "Probability Theory" ], [ "heading", "Random Variables" ], [ "heading", "Research Article" ], [ "heading", "Research and Analysis Methods" ], [ "openalex", "1910|Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses" ], [ "plos", "/Biology and life sciences/Developmental biology/Life cycles" ], [ "plos", "/Biology and life sciences/Developmental biology/Life cycles/Larvae" ], [ "plos", "/Biology and life sciences/Developmental biology/Metamorphosis" ], [ "plos", "/Biology and life sciences/Ecology/Marine ecology" ], [ "plos", "/Biology and life sciences/Evolutionary biology/Evolutionary processes/Natural selection" ], [ "plos", "/Biology and life sciences/Genetics" ], [ "plos", "/Biology and life sciences/Marine biology/Marine ecology" ], [ "plos", "/Earth sciences/Marine and aquatic sciences/Marine biology/Marine ecology" ], [ "plos", "/Ecology and environmental sciences/Ecology/Marine ecology" ], [ "plos", "/Physical sciences/Mathematics/Probability theory/Random variables/Covariance" ], [ "plos", "/Research and analysis methods/Animal studies/Experimental organism systems/Animal models" ] ], "openalex": "W7223689823", "pdf_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079&type=printable", "pmcid": "PMC13722404", "pmid": "42932383", "published": "2026-10-26", "publisher": "Public Library of Science", "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/71tg695nvy20g.ris", "sources": [ { "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:17Z", "native_id": "10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079", "source": "plos", "url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079" }, { "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:22:54Z", "native_id": "PMC13722404", "source": "pmc", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079" } ], "subjects": [ { "field": "biology", "origin": "plos:developmental biology", "subfield": "developmental-biology" }, { "field": "biology", "origin": "plos:ecology", "subfield": "ecology" }, { "field": "biology", "origin": "heading:Evolutionary Biology", "subfield": "evolutionary-biology" }, { "field": "biology", "origin": "heading:Genetics", "subfield": "genetics-genomics" }, { "field": "earth", "origin": "heading:Earth Sciences", "subfield": "general" } ], "title": "Tolerance measured at one developmental stage mispredicts climate resilience in an animal with a complex life cycle", "title_text": "Tolerance measured at one developmental stage mispredicts climate resilience in an animal with a complex life cycle", "type": "peer-reviewed", "updated_at": "2026-11-03T12:22:54Z", "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/71tg695nvy20g", "venue": "PLOS Biology", "versions": [] }