{
  "abstract": "Accelerating global change is affecting coupled natural ecosystems and human activities in every part of the world. The local and regional expressions of these changes are a product of interacting and networked systems such that a shock, trend or development transition in one region, ecosystem, or sector can propagate impacts to other regions, ecosystems, and sectors. Informed adaptation and development strategies require an understanding of how signals propagate through these coupled systems and regions. Here, we synthesize findings from our work in Ethiopia and Mali, where we developed and applied a modeling system designed to capture cross-sector dynamics of networked food, water, and energy systems at subnational scale. We approach the problem using a multiplayer microeconomic model that accounts for diverse objectives through chains of food production, distribution, and consumption that connect resource regions to market regions. This paper draws lessons from three case studies in Ethiopia and one in Mali that are designed to examine impacts of a subnational climate shock (drought), a centralized national policy decision (export restrictions in response to food shortage), a distributed development strategy (solar-powered groundwater irrigation), and an external intervention (food aid). In each case, we consider how an initial signal propagates through the country via markets, infrastructure, and interactions between economic actors. An understanding of this propagation can inform strategies for food security in a changing climate.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218",
    "Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington, DC 20016",
    "Center for Environment and Development Studies, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 1176 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia",
    "Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740",
    "Operations Management, Indian School of Business, Mohali 140306, India",
    "National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352",
    "Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Benjamin F. Zaitchik",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0698-0658"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Sauleh Siddiqui",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2466-8924"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Belay Simane"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Ying Zhang",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0036-7502"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Sriram Sankaranarayanan",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4662-3241"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Craig Bakker"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Steven Witkin",
      "orcid": "0009-0009-2623-9646"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/75egqar4945pw.bib",
  "cited_by": 1,
  "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2321155123",
  "fulltext_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13732204/",
  "id": "75egqar4945pw",
  "issns": [
    "0027-8424",
    "1091-6490"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2321155123",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "447"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "572"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "9"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Perspective"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Social Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Sustainability Science"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2312|Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223666753",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2321155123",
  "pmcid": "PMC13732204",
  "pmid": "42932663",
  "published": "2026-10-26",
  "publisher": "National Academy of Sciences",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/75egqar4945pw.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-08T12:22:14Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13732204",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2321155123"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2312|Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies",
      "subfield": "hydrology-soils"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Propagating shocks and transitions across networked food systems: Insights from multiplayer microeconomic modeling",
  "title_text": "Propagating shocks and transitions across networked food systems: Insights from multiplayer microeconomic modeling",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T12:22:14Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/75egqar4945pw",
  "venue": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
  "versions": []
}