{
  "abstract": "Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) receiver streams contain irregular updates and within-trajectory gaps that may reflect forecast uncertainty. We evaluate reception-conditioned residual calibration using established global and Mondrian split conformal methods. The KLAF archive contains 99,736,221 observations from 5161 aircraft over 463 observed dates; repeated experiments use 1,001,738 observations from 276 complete aircraft–days. Training-selected reported-state constant velocity achieves a test mean horizontal distance error (MDE) of 0.848 km and root-mean-square error of 1.385 km on 220,061 common predictor cases. A finite-adjacent-heading calculation labels 99.97% of these cases; stable and maneuvering MDEs are 0.578 and 1.993 km. On 220,040 identical raw forecast cases, causal selective preprocessing increases MDE by 0.0054 km (95% day-cluster interval 0.0045–0.0061). At 90% target coverage, nominal and degraded reception radii are 2.974 and 3.666 km, with a degraded-to-nominal ratio of 1.233 (95% interval 1.143–1.284). At 95%, the ratio is 1.175 (1.108–1.209). Degraded empirical coverage is 89.49% and 93.79%, respectively. Wider degraded radii persist across segmentation, reception-threshold, and motion-stratified analyses. These are empirical out-of-time results for eligible, matched forecasts from one selected terminal benchmark; chronological splitting and cluster resampling do not establish formal conformal validity under the observed dependence.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "School of Graduate Studies, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL 32114, USA",
    "Aviation Institute, College of Public Affairs and Community Service, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, NE 68182, USA"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Chuyang Yang",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9202-6766"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Chenyu Huang",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2087-8745"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Haoruo Fu",
      "orcid": "0009-0003-6790-0230"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7acmjp53wa7wz.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3390/math14203660",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "7acmjp53wa7wz",
  "issns": [
    "2227-7390"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/20/3660",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2202|Air Traffic Management and Optimization"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221178199",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-09",
  "publisher": "MDPI AG",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7acmjp53wa7wz.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:29Z",
      "native_id": "10.3390/math14203660",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/20/3660"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "issn:2227-7390",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Regime-Aware Conformal Uncertainty Quantification for Irregular ADS-B Trajectories in Terminal Airspace",
  "title_text": "Regime-Aware Conformal Uncertainty Quantification for Irregular ADS-B Trajectories in Terminal Airspace",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:29Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7acmjp53wa7wz",
  "venue": "Mathematics",
  "versions": []
}