{
  "abstract": "Preprint. Also available on SSRN at https://ssrn.com/abstract=7668018 (DOI 10.2139/ssrn.7668018). Prepared for submission to Acta Astronautica.\n\nIf technological civilizations are common, every explanation of the Great Silence either lacks enforcement and fails when a few civilizations deviate, or adds local automated enforcement and becomes a hypothesis about resident self-replicating probes (\"lurkers\"); zoo, aestivation and dark forest then differ only in trigger settings. Because the window in which a civilization can be suppressed is short compared with light-lag, and fast strikes are visible, the enforcer must already be in the system. Rival lurker lineages face a volunteer's dilemma whose equilibrium is restraint, so crowding protects a nascent civilization; survivors seed lineages of their own, so late civilizations are better protected. Earth's survival admits four branches, each with observational consequences: a census of oxygen worlds and an excess of impact scars among technosignature planets.\n\nManuscript source, figures and the lineage-dynamics simulation code are at https://github.com/novalis78/lurker-ecology (manuscript CC BY 4.0, code MIT).",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Euler's Identity LLC"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Lennart Lopin",
      "orcid": "0009-0001-2751-2060"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7gt2ebk74t9tn.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.2139/ssrn.7668018",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "7gt2ebk74t9tn",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23861346",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7224877815",
  "pdf_url": "https://zenodo.org/api/records/23861346/files/lurker_ecology_r5.pdf/content",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-25",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7gt2ebk74t9tn.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-08T12:20:54Z",
      "native_id": "23861346",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23861346"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "openalex:3103|Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Lurker Ecology: Rival Embedded Probes and a Falsifiable Resolution of the Fermi Paradox",
  "title_text": "Lurker Ecology: Rival Embedded Probes and a Falsifiable Resolution of the Fermi Paradox",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T12:20:54Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7gt2ebk74t9tn",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}