{
  "abstract": "Natural direct and indirect effects are defined through cross-world interventional counterfactuals. We propose an alternative construction based on backtracking counterfactuals. Rather than intervening on the treatment or mediator, we use a backtracking conditional distribution to construct an alternative exogenous state satisfying a desired treatment-mediator constraint. This yields the backtracking direct and indirect effects, and also the backtracking total effect. Likewise, we adapt the population intervention effects.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.28910",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Jose M. Peña"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7majbzq1dgsg0.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.28910",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "7majbzq1dgsg0",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28910",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ML"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2613|Advanced Causal Inference Techniques"
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  ],
  "openalex": "W7223250790",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.28910",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-20",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7majbzq1dgsg0.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:34:29Z",
      "native_id": "2610.28910",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28910"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.ME",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Backtracking Direct, Indirect and Total Effects",
  "title_text": "Backtracking Direct, Indirect and Total Effects",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T15:20:35Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7majbzq1dgsg0",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}