{
  "abstract": "DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the +1.4pp win-rate gain is not a testable edge under E8 geometry timing; it is a statistical artifact of removing low-frequency signals that never reached live status in this window. The filter's only concrete effect here is reducing exposure (removing two open trades), not improving realized PnL. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win rate unchanged (4W/2L/2O remains), profit unchanged, but trade frequency drops ~10-15% — net negative for absolute returns. The backtest gain is likely regime-dependent and not tied to E8's rhythm logic (confirmation count is a lagging, non-geometric metric). RISK: Overfitting to a short backtest window; confirmation lag degrades entry prices in fast moves (NFP, breakouts), shrinking average R-multiple; filter removes high-volatility winners that E8's fade polarity specifically targets. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 90-day replay-bench on the live engine's historical tick data (not shadow) with the filter\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7rq9hq5nvdsad.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23526108",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "7rq9hq5nvdsad",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23526108",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-21",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7rq9hq5nvdsad.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T12:21:51Z",
      "native_id": "23526108",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23526108"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "MODEL ADOPTION #4470: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.0% — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "MODEL ADOPTION #4470: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.0% — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-04T12:21:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/7rq9hq5nvdsad",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}