{
  "abstract": "Active galactic nuclei (AGN) disks are promising sites for hierarchical binary black hole (BBH) mergers, which next-generation gravitational-wave detectors will probe out to high redshift. Predicting their contribution requires linking BBH evolution in AGN disks to the poorly constrained high-redshift evolution of active supermassive black holes (SMBHs). We introduce ARISE (AGN Rates and Intrinsic Stellar-BH Evolution), a framework that embeds semi-analytical models of BBH evolution in AGN disks into a cosmological description of the AGN number density, SMBH mass function, Eddington-ratio distribution, and nuclear metallicity. We consider a conservative AGN-abundance model anchored to observed luminosity functions, as well as Eddington-limited and super-Eddington scenarios based on the CAT cosmological model, compatible with JWST observations of high-redshift AGNs. The merger-rate density is set primarily by the disk viscosity parameter $α$: at $z = 0.2$, we find a rate of $12$--$37$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ for $α= 0.01$ and $0.5$--$6$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ for $α= 0.1$. The redshift evolution depends strongly on how SMBHs grow. The rate density peaks at $z \\simeq 1.8$, $3.3$, and $3.9$ ($1.5$, $3.6$, and $3.9$) for $α=0.01$ ($0.1$) in the conservative, Eddington-limited, and super-Eddington models, respectively, and in the super-Eddington model it stays nearly flat out to $z \\simeq 10$. For $α= 0.1$, AGN disks account for $\\sim 2$--$40\\%$ of the LVK-inferred merger rate, consistent with current upper limits from GW--AGN associations. For $α= 0.01$, they match or exceed it. The Einstein Telescope (ET) should detect $\\sim 10^{5}$ ($\\sim 10^{4}$) AGN-disk mergers per year for $α= 0.01$ ($0.1$). ET will test the AGN channel at redshifts where the AGN population models differ most strongly, providing independent constraints on the growth of early SMBHs.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.40787",
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Maria Paola Vaccaro"
    },
    {
      "name": "Alessandro Trinca"
    },
    {
      "name": "Michela Mapelli"
    },
    {
      "name": "Lumen Boco"
    },
    {
      "name": "Raffaella Schneider"
    },
    {
      "name": "Rosa Valiante"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dominika Wylezalek"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8233vj691egvc.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.40787",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8233vj691egvc",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40787",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.CO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.HE"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.40787",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-29",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8233vj691egvc.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-02T12:21:15Z",
      "native_id": "2610.40787",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40787"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.CO",
      "subfield": "cosmology"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.HE",
      "subfield": "high-energy-astrophysics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Cosmic merger rates and population evolution of binary black hole mergers in AGN disks",
  "title_text": "Cosmic merger rates and population evolution of binary black hole mergers in AGN disks",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-04T15:20:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8233vj691egvc",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}