{
  "abstract": "BackgroundNHS-Galleri did not reach its prespecified primary endpoint of a reduction in combined stage III and IV cases, but reported fewer stage IV cancers after annual multi-cancer early detection screening. We estimated the potential five-year life-years associated with the cancer-specific stage IV differences observed during the two incident screening rounds.\n\nMethodsWe used intervention and control stage IV counts for ten prespecified cancers reported in the NHS-Galleri ASCO 2026 presentation. For each cancer, the randomized-arm count difference was multiplied by the difference in five-year restricted mean survival time between stage III and IV, estimated from England stage-specific five-year net survival using a constant-hazard fit. Adverse cancer-specific differences remained in the model. Results were annualized across the two incident rounds and scaled per million people screened. Sampling intervals used an independent Poisson approximation for arm-specific counts.\n\nFindingsAcross the ten evaluable cancers, the intervention and control arms had 180 and 239 stage IV diagnoses during the incident rounds. The conditional projection was 66.3 potential life-years over five years in the trial intervention cohort, equivalent to 466 per million people screened annually (95% sampling interval 190-743). For a population of 10 million, the corresponding projection was 4,664 annually (1,896-7,432). Colorectal, lung, and esophageal cancers accounted for 79% of the net projection. Pancreatic, ovarian, and lymphoid cancers contributed negatively because their observed stage IV counts favored control.\n\nInterpretationIf the observed incident-round reduction in stage IV diagnoses represents true downstaging to stage III, it could produce meaningful population health gains. This conditional estimate is not evidence of mortality reduction. Longer follow-up remains necessary to distinguish benefit from chance, lead-time and length biases, overdiagnosis, and differences in tumor biology.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "N. Starasvetskaya"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "G. de Lima Lopes Junior"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/88jewxhg5d338.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.21.26363618",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.21.26363618v1.full",
  "id": "88jewxhg5d338",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.21.26363618v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "oncology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2730|Global Cancer Incidence and Screening"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214085527",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.21.26363618v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-21",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/88jewxhg5d338.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:14Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.21.26363618",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.21.26363618v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:oncology",
      "subfield": "oncology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Potential five-year life years associated with stage IV reductions in NHS Galleri Trial",
  "title_text": "Potential five-year life years associated with stage IV reductions in NHS Galleri Trial",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:14Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/88jewxhg5d338",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}