{
  "abstract": "A potentially super El Niño is forecasted in 2026, raising the need to anticipate land carbon-cycle risks before its impacts unfold. We develop a prospective early-warning framework that uses dynamic global vegetation models driven by an ensemble of ECMWF seasonal climate forecasts and machine-learning burned area predictions. Forecasts indicate a $0.23 \\pm 0.21$ PgC reduction in global net biome productivity in the second half of 2026, with hotspots of sink weakening in eastern South America and elevated fire risk in Southeast Asia.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.16714",
  "author_total": 17,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Xiaomeng Du"
    },
    {
      "name": "Runda Jiang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Philippe Ciais"
    },
    {
      "name": "Pierre Friedlingstein"
    },
    {
      "name": "Stephen Sitch"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mike O'Sullivan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jefferson Goncalves de Souza"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tim Stripp"
    },
    {
      "name": "Eloi Lindas"
    },
    {
      "name": "Piyu Ke"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yi Xi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Minxuan Sun"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xiaoran Wu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mengjie Han"
    },
    {
      "name": "Shanshan Song"
    },
    {
      "name": "Qiang Zhang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Wei Li"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8a2pa2j98f4ax.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.16714",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8a2pa2j98f4ax",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16714",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.16714",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-21",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8a2pa2j98f4ax.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:34:18Z",
      "native_id": "2610.16714",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16714"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Forecasting carbon-risk hotspots ahead of the extreme 2026 El Niño",
  "title_text": "Forecasting carbon-risk hotspots ahead of the extreme 2026 El Niño",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:34:18Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8a2pa2j98f4ax",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}