{
  "abstract": "Bankfull discharge, the maximum flow a river can convey before spilling over its banks, is central to modelling flood risk and understanding river-channel evolution. Global flood inundation models assume a 2-year return period for bankfull conditions, but this assumption remains untested globally. Here we use observations and machine learning to estimate bankfull discharge at ~1-km resolution along a recently developed global river network. We show that the widely used 2-year discharge reasonably approximates bankfull-flow magnitude, but bankfull return periods vary substantially within and across climate zones. Bankfull conditions occur more frequently in tropical and temperate regions (median return periods of 1.5 and 1.8 years; interquartile ranges of 2.5 and 3.2 years, respectively) and less frequently in cold and arid regions (2.8 and 4.3 years; interquartile ranges of 4.8 and 6.0 years). This variation across climate zones provides a basis for improving the representation of channel capacity in global flood models.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK. yinxue.liu@ouce.ox.ac.uk",
    "School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. yinxue.liu@ouce.ox.ac.uk",
    "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Shinfield Park, Reading, UK. michel.wortmann@ecmwf.int",
    "School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. michel.wortmann@ecmwf.int",
    "School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, UK",
    "School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK",
    "State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China",
    "Department of Hydrology, Geological Survey of Brazil - SGB/CPRM, Brasilia, Brazil",
    "Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland",
    "WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland",
    "Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK",
    "Geography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK",
    "School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK",
    "Department of Earth Science and Environmental Change, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA",
    "Department of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK",
    "Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK",
    "School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK",
    "JBA Consulting, 1 Broughton Park, Old Lane North, Broughton, Skipton, UK",
    "Energy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Hull, UK",
    "Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK",
    "Vice Chancellor's Office, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK",
    "School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. louise.slater@ouce.ox.ac.uk"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 22,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Yinxue Liu",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5250-0184"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Michel Wortmann",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1879-7674"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Laurence Paul Hawker",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8317-7084"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Jeffrey Charles Neal",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5793-9594"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5,
        6
      ],
      "name": "Jiabo Yin",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2305-8729"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7
      ],
      "name": "Marcus Suassuna Santos",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1412-2549"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        8,
        9
      ],
      "name": "Bailey J. Anderson",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5936-3346"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        10
      ],
      "name": "Richard James Boothroyd",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9742-4229"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Nicholas"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        12
      ],
      "name": "Gregory H. Sambrook Smith",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3707-1182"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        13,
        11
      ],
      "name": "Philip J. Ashworth",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9642-4857"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        14,
        15
      ],
      "name": "Hannah Cloke",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1472-868X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        16,
        5
      ],
      "name": "Solomon H. Gebrechorkos",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7498-0695"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        16
      ],
      "name": "Julian Leyland",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3419-9949"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Boen Zhang",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4633-3033"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Ellie Vahidi"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        17
      ],
      "name": "Helen Griffith",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0755-4519"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        18
      ],
      "name": "Pauline Delorme",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5865-714X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        18
      ],
      "name": "Stuart McLelland",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1223-0917"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        19,
        20
      ],
      "name": "Daniel R. Parsons",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5142-4466"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        16
      ],
      "name": "Stephen E. Darby",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8778-4394"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        21
      ],
      "name": "Louise J. Slater",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9416-488X"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8aa447vdktfng.bib",
  "cited_by": 9,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-76433-3",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8aa447vdktfng",
  "issns": [
    "2041-1723"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76433-3",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Flood Risk Assessment and Management"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7203681157",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": "PMC13487230",
  "pmid": "42613330",
  "published": "2026-08-18",
  "publisher": "Nature Portfolio",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8aa447vdktfng.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-05T13:21:10Z",
      "native_id": "W7203681157",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76433-3"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Flood Risk Assessment and Management",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones",
  "title_text": "Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-09T13:21:20Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8aa447vdktfng",
  "venue": "Nature Communications",
  "versions": []
}