{
  "abstract": "The dynamical basis of stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) predictability remains unclear, particularly the relative roles of persistence, structural variability, and cross-level coupling. Here we combine eigen microstate theory with mesoscopic Granger-causality analysis of ERA5 geopotential height fields to quantify the predictive contributions of eigen microstates. We show that short-term predictability is dominated by the persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas higher-order stratospheric structures and tropospheric variability provide additional predictive information at subseasonal leads. Including these additional states increases the all-winter 30-day prediction correlation from 0.24 to 0.33 and reduces forecast error. These contributions exhibit strong lead-time dependence and vary between winters with and without sudden stratospheric warmings. Part of this predictive information overlaps with that contained in preceding 100 hPa eddy heat flux, linking state-resolved predictability to wave-related circulation variability. Our results unify SPV predictability within a multimodal, state-resolved framework and provide a physically interpretable pathway.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2605.13417",
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Shuo Yang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dan Zhao"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tingting Xue"
    },
    {
      "name": "Chunhua Zeng"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yongwen Zhang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xiaosong Chen"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8bd335c24msv1.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2605.13417",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8bd335c24msv1",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13417",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Atmospheric Ozone and Climate"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7161154020",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.13417",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-22",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8bd335c24msv1.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:34:34Z",
      "native_id": "2605.13417",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13417"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability",
  "title_text": "State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:34:34Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8bd335c24msv1",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}