{
  "abstract": "Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder in the United States and a growing driver of late-life disability and death. We characterized U.S. PD-related mortality from 1999 to 2025 and projected it to 2030.\n\nMethods: In this serial cross-sectional analysis of CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death data, PD-related deaths in adults aged ≥45 years were identified using ICD-10 code G20 recorded anywhere on the death certificate. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 were decomposed by joinpoint regression and projected to 2030 using a log-scale ensemble weighted by rolling-origin back-test error, stratified by sex, age, race and ethnicity, census region, and degree of urbanization.\n\nResults: Among 1,149,731 PD-related deaths (59.8% men), the overall AAMR was 32.74 in 1999 and 41.03 (95% CI 40.70–41.35) in 2025, but the full-window trend was not significant (average annual percent change 0.56%; −0.10 to 1.22; p = 0.099). A steep 2014–2021 rise (annual percent change 4.70%; p < 0.001) was followed by a non-significant decline, negative in 13 of the 14 strata observed through 2025. COVID-19 was co-listed on 10.15% of PD-mentioned deaths in 2020 and 0.79% in 2025, accounting for 58% of the 2019–2020 rise and 55% of the 2021–2024 decline; excluding these deaths the series was close to flat (39.88 in 2020; 40.71 in 2025). The projected 2030 AAMR was 41.73 (95% prediction interval 33.97–51.27), essentially unchanged from 2025; however, deaths are projected to rise from 62,162 to 70,825, with approximately 87% of the increase attributable to population aging. Restricting to PD as the underlying cause gave a steeper increase (+86.2% versus +25.3%), arguing against ascertainment drift. Between 1999–2007 and 2017–2025, nursing home deaths fell from 49.24 to 35.48%, while home deaths rose from 19.37 to 34.93% and hospice deaths from 0.88 to 8.25%.\n\nConclusion: Age-adjusted PD-related mortality did not change significantly between 1999 and 2025. Most of the post-2021 decline reflects the unwinding of COVID-19 co-listing rather than an improvement in underlying mortality, a mechanism that is now nearly exhausted. Projections indicate a plateau in the standardized rate, while absolute deaths rise with population aging, and end-of-life care has shifted from institutions to homes.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "College of Medicine, Alfaisal University , ,",
    "Liaquat University of Medical and Health Sciences , , ,",
    "Khyber Medical College , ,",
    "Department of Medicine, Peshawar Medical College, Riphah International University (Peshawar Campus) , ,",
    "CMH Institute of Medical Sciences , ,",
    "Rawal Institute of Health Sciences , ,",
    "Ayub Medical College , ,",
    "Peshawar Institute of Cardiology , ,",
    "Medical College, Aga Khan University , ,",
    "Department of Anatomy, College of Medicine, Alfaisal University , ,",
    "Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine , , ,"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 13,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Eshal Atif"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Vishan Das"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Mazhar Ali"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Abdal Ahmad"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Kaneez Fatima"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Mohib Ali Hassan"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Muhammad Mukhlis"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7
      ],
      "name": "Danyal Ahmad"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        8
      ],
      "name": "Mohammad Dawar Zahid"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Sadia Qazi"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Muhammad Atif Mazhar"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        10
      ],
      "name": "Mohammad Sunoqrot"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Akef Obeidat"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8d0dbrgny6e9r.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3389/fneur.2026.1934146",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13668596/?tool=EBI",
  "id": "8d0dbrgny6e9r",
  "issns": [
    "1664-2295"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13668596",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2728|Parkinson's Disease Mechanisms and Treatments"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7215123379",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13668596/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13668596",
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": "Frontiers Media SA",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8d0dbrgny6e9r.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:18Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13668596",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13668596"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:20:16Z",
      "native_id": "10.3389/fneur.2026.1934146",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2026.1934146/full"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2728|Parkinson's Disease Mechanisms and Treatments",
      "subfield": "neurology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Parkinson’s disease mortality in the United States, 1999–2025: a national multiple-cause-of-death analysis with projections to 2030",
  "title_text": "Parkinson’s disease mortality in the United States, 1999–2025: a national multiple-cause-of-death analysis with projections to 2030",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:20:16Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8d0dbrgny6e9r",
  "venue": "Frontiers in neurology",
  "versions": []
}