{
  "abstract": "Future electromagnetic telescopes, such as $\\textit{NewAthena}$, $\\textit{CASTOR}$, and an $\\textit{AXIS}$-like mission, along with milli-Hz gravitational-wave (GW) detectors such as $\\textit{LISA}$, are expected to unearth the population of Galactic ultra-compact binaries (UCBs). Joint multi-messenger detections will probe the uncertain formation, evolution, and observables of mass-transferring UCBs such as AM CVns, but theoretical tools need to be advanced to anticipate future data challenges. Motivated by this, we present a new forward model for the continuum emission of AM CVn binaries that connects source binary parameters to X-ray, optical, and ultraviolet observables. The model assumes GW-driven mass transfer with physically motivated prescriptions for accretion energetics, emission geometry, absorption, and instrumental response. Combining this with $\\textit{LISA}$ observations and the output of binary population synthesis enables exploration of the multi-messenger properties of AM CVns. Although uncertain, our model predicts that approximately one per $7000$ AM CVn binaries will permit a joint multi-messenger detection with $\\textit{LISA}$, $\\textit{CASTOR}$, and $\\textit{AXIS}$. We also develop a framework for inferring binary parameters from the inverse model with a convolutional neural net and normalizing flows. Testing the trained flow with our synthetic AM CVn population, we find mean absolute fractional error on the inferred accretor mass of $0.05$, donor mass of $0.26$, orbital period of $0.1$, and distance of $0.2$, while Spearman's rank shows strongly correlated true and predicted distributions except for the donor mass. These efforts lay a foundation for follow-up studies that will explore detailed binary astrophysics and observational requirements for effective multi-messenger scientific discovery in the coming decade.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2607.12971",
  "author_total": 8,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Nathan Steinle"
    },
    {
      "name": "Samar Safi-Harb"
    },
    {
      "name": "Austin MacMaster"
    },
    {
      "name": "Liliana Rivera Sandoval"
    },
    {
      "name": "Katelyn Breivik"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tyrone E. Woods"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tom Maccarone"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tom Wagg"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8f6gb4rp0xdgc.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2607.12971",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8f6gb4rp0xdgc",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.12971",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.HE"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "gr-qc"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7168374769",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.12971",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-07-14",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8f6gb4rp0xdgc.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:27:37Z",
      "native_id": "2607.12971",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.12971"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.HE",
      "subfield": "high-energy-astrophysics"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:gr-qc",
      "subfield": "gravitation"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A new model for the continuum spectra of AM CVn binaries and multi-messenger inference with normalizing flows",
  "title_text": "A new model for the continuum spectra of AM CVn binaries and multi-messenger inference with normalizing flows",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:27:37Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8f6gb4rp0xdgc",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}