{
  "abstract": "Aim: Tropical African flora is potentially threatened, yet species-level conservation priority-setting is rare in under-assessed floras. We tested whether range restriction drives extinction risk and operationalised the Conservation Imperatives at species level. Location: Rwanda, Albertine Rift biodiversity hotspot, eastern Africa. Methods: We applied this workflow to 367 IUCN-assessed vascular plant species. The approach combined: (i) Random Forest, partial proportional-odds models, propensity-score matching with Rosenbaum-bounds sensitivity; (ii) a three-tier classification linking formal Protected Area (PA), remnant forest patch and exposed habitat to distinct actions; (iii) species distribution modelling across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) × two horizons (2041–2060, 2061–2080) with EDGE2 phylogenetic-priority scoring; and (iv) cross-validation against an independent field inventory. Results: Regional range restriction dominated risk: 68% of 86 Albertine Rift near-endemic species were threatened, against 16% of 266 wider-ranging and 14% of 15 strict Rwandan endemics. The matched effect was robust but modest (OR = 2.74, 95% CI 1.46–5.14; Rosenbaum-bounds Γ ≈ 1.5). Twenty-five of 105 threatened species occupied exposed-habitat tier; only six gained protections from a feasible 2.5 km expansion occurred in the exposed-habitat tier; only six gained protections from a feasible 2.5 km boundary expansion. EDGE2 and threat-based priority were weakly correlated (ρ = 0.162, p = 0.098), indicating partly independent priorities. Projected habitat loss increased monotonically with emissions and time; 41 species (22%) exceeded the IUCN Criterion A2 threshold (≥ 80% loss) under SSP5-8.5 by 2061–2080, and threatened-lineage phylogenetic diversity declined nationally by 22.5%, concentrated in Nyungwe National Park. Cross-validation recovered Capparis lucens from a harmonisation artefact and identified further threatened species absent from global datasets, including Pterygota mildbraedii. Main conclusions: Within Rwanda's vascular flora, regional range restriction is the dominant driver of extinction risk and is independent of, and compounded by, projected climate loss. The Conservation Imperatives workflow supports Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) Target 3 reporting in under-assessed floras.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Blaise Binama"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8gsvj92vc4yeh.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.32942/x2cx0b",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8gsvj92vc4yeh",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15181/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Albertine Rift"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Conservation Imperatives"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "EDGE2"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "KMGBF Target 3"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Life Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Possibly Extinct"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Rwanda"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "biogeography"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "ensemble species distribution model"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "propensity score matching"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "range restriction"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1110|Botany and Plant Ecology Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214540226",
  "pdf_url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15181/download/26332/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-25",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8gsvj92vc4yeh.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:31Z",
      "native_id": "15181",
      "source": "ecoevorxiv",
      "url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15181/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "openalex:1110|Botany and Plant Ecology Studies",
      "subfield": "plant-biology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Regional range restriction, not national endemism, predicts plant extinction risk: operationalising Conservation Imperatives for under-assessed tropical floras",
  "title_text": "Regional range restriction, not national endemism, predicts plant extinction risk: operationalising Conservation Imperatives for under-assessed tropical floras",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:31Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8gsvj92vc4yeh",
  "venue": "EcoEvoRxiv",
  "versions": []
}