{
  "abstract": "We introduce EC-EarthFlow, a generative flow matching model that emulates simulations from the physical climate model EC-Earth3. The model is trained on transient simulations from EC-Earth3 (1950-2166, SSP2-4.5) to predict the day ahead temperature field from the previous days temperature as well as annual mean temperature. Predictions are made auto-regressively with rollout periods of between a month and an extended season. Using only this variable of interest, we are able to reproduce the daily variability, spatial patterns, annual cycle and long-term trend from EC-Earth3 at a substantially lower computational cost than the physical model. We demonstrate that EC-EarthFlow is stable for long inference periods, and that it can learn the physical relationships as simulated in EC-Earth3.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.09715",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Kirien Whan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Nikolaj T. Mücke"
    },
    {
      "name": "Karin van der Wiel"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8mkshrnne0hzj.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.09715",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8mkshrnne0hzj",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.09715",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221035641",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.09715",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-07",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8mkshrnne0hzj.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:27:37Z",
      "native_id": "2610.09715",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.09715"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching",
  "title_text": "EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:27:37Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8mkshrnne0hzj",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}