{
  "abstract": "We test whether the Kuramoto model quantitatively describes spatial synchronization in regional epidemic waves, using daily COVID-19 incidence for 400 German \\emph{Kreise} (2021--2023) and weekly ILI rates for 12 European countries (ECDC, 2021--2026). Bandpass filtering and Hilbert-transform phase extraction yield high global order parameters ($\\langle r\\rangle\\approx0.87$ for Germany; $\\langle r\\rangle\\approx0.97$ for Europe), yet both are dominated by a common-mode driver rather than pairwise local coupling. Removing the common mode reveals genuine short-range synchronization: an exponentially decaying residual local order with correlation length $ξ=152\\pm6$~km in Germany, and a significant neighbor-vs.-non-neighbor contrast (Mann--Whitney $p=0.005$) in the European panel. We interpret this convergent pattern across two diseases and two spatial scales as a universal two-scale structure: a long-range common-mode field superimposed on shorter-range diffusive coupling. Cross-validation against a companion gauge-mediated Doi--Peliti framework shows that district-level effective screening mass $m_R$ is uncorrelated with local~$r$ (null result), the national $(m_R,r)$ phase portrait independently reproduces a previously reported hysteresis loop, and pairwise phase lags quantitatively match fractional-calculus predictions. A frequency--degree correlation provides the structural signature of explosive synchronization; excess synchronization between districts sharing the same \\emph{Bundesland} implicates shared school-holiday calendars and state-level policy as local coupling drivers.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.06899",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Jose de Jesus Bernal-Alvarado"
    },
    {
      "name": "David Delepine"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8nyddsx0cc49m.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.06899",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8nyddsx0cc49m",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06899",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "nlin.AO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.soc-ph"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-bio.PE"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2611|COVID-19 epidemiological studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7212076876",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06899",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-07",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8nyddsx0cc49m.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:48Z",
      "native_id": "2609.06899",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06899"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "arxiv:q-bio.PE",
      "subfield": "evolutionary-biology"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:nlin.AO",
      "subfield": "statistical-nonlinear"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Kuramoto Phase Synchronization in Regional Epidemic Dynamics: Two Test Cases from European COVID-19 and Influenza Surveillance",
  "title_text": "Kuramoto Phase Synchronization in Regional Epidemic Dynamics: Two Test Cases from European COVID-19 and Influenza Surveillance",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:20:02Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8nyddsx0cc49m",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}