{
  "abstract": "Monitoring biodiversity through time is critical for understanding the impacts of global change, yet the reliability of available time-series for estimating population trends remains poorly studied. We simulated population dynamics to study how monitoring duration, inter-annual variability, and temporal autocorrelation influence trend reliability. We then inferred the expected reliability of 16,450 empirical time-series of terrestrial animals based on those simulations. Longer, less variable, and negatively autocorrelated time-series produced more reliable trend estimates. Time-series shorter than 20 years led to large magnitude errors and low power in estimating population trends, despite generally low sign uncertainty. Overall, 80% of the empirical time-series were too short and/or noisy to identify meaningful temporal trends, yet reliability varies among taxa. Our results show important limitations in the available biodiversity data, stressing the need to sustain long-term monitoring to better estimate population trends, a top priority in the current biodiversity crisis.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Estacion Biologica de Doñana"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "J. G. de Aledo"
    },
    {
      "name": "I. Bartomeus"
    },
    {
      "name": "F. Duchenne"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8ps4tbc7ha3xv.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.10.14.759066",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.14.759066v1.full",
  "id": "8ps4tbc7ha3xv",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.14.759066v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "ecology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2303|Wildlife Ecology and Conservation"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7222482910",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.14.759066v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-14",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8ps4tbc7ha3xv.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:28:04Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.10.14.759066",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.14.759066v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:ecology",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Available time-series of terrestrial animals provide low reliability in population trend estimates",
  "title_text": "Available time-series of terrestrial animals provide low reliability in population trend estimates",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:28:04Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8ps4tbc7ha3xv",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}