{
  "abstract": "Earth's energy imbalance has increased rapidly since continuous satellite observations began in 2001, raising concern that equilibrium climate sensitivity may be higher than in recent assessments. Here we use energy-budget trends over 2006–2024 to estimate climate sensitivity in a Bayesian framework, accounting for uncertainty in observations, forcing, variability, and pattern effects. Climate sensitivity inference depends strongly on the likelihood method, and we propose a simple, revised method that is physically consistent with the global energy-balance model. Its maximum likelihood is at 5.2K, whereas the existing method maximizes at 3.0K. Using the revised likelihood and a standard uniform-feedback prior, the posterior median is 3.6K; posterior medians range from 3.3–4.8K depending on the prior. Posterior 66% ranges largely overlap existing assessments of 2–5K and strongly disfavor climate sensitivity below 2K, but upper bounds are prior-dependent. Thus 21st-century trends do not require unusually high climate sensitivity compared to other lines of evidence.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Vincent T Cooper"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8qmqrjfgbdgav.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x5fn68",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8qmqrjfgbdgav",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15226/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Applied Statistics"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Atmospheric Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Bayesian methods"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "CERES"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Climate"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Earth's energy imbalance"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "climate sensitivity"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "effective radiative forcing"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "pattern effect"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "radiative feedbacks"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214559744",
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/15226/download/26398/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-27",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8qmqrjfgbdgav.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:39Z",
      "native_id": "15226",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15226/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Atmospheric Sciences",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Climate",
      "subfield": "climate"
    },
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "bepress:Applied Statistics",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Climate Sensitivity from 21st-Century Trends in Earth's Energy Imbalance",
  "title_text": "Climate Sensitivity from 21st-Century Trends in Earth's Energy Imbalance",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:39Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8qmqrjfgbdgav",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}