{
  "abstract": "E-process confidence sequences for unbounded means typically use a variance bound and a first-order score, leaving skewness and kurtosis unused. We construct a quadratic-envelope e-process from a conditionally centered vector score with a predictable second-moment bound. Under moment information specified independently of the tested stream, it stays positive on unbounded support and gives exact anytime-valid coverage under predictable strategies and fixed mixtures, without score clipping. For a location family with known central moments through order four, the centered observation and its centered square yield an exact confidence sequence whose local width shrinks, relative to a first-order construction, by a factor determined by skewness and kurtosis. At level 5%, the largest null ever-crossing rate was 4.63%; on two zero-inflated-lognormal families median stopping times fell by 36.8-45.8%. When the moments are calibrated on an independent reference sample, a centering-robust factor keeps exact coverage at a closed-form width cost: the median gain was 21.6-30.3% for Gamma(2) and lognormal errors with 10^6 reference observations, and a loss of up to 9.9% with 10^4. On public Fermi gamma-ray detector data with a declared stability margin, it crossed at the current location in 1.8% of 225 windows and stopped 30-35% earlier than the calibrated first-order method.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2611.01637",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Serhii Zabolotnii"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8tnwdq62kr46a.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2611.01637",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8tnwdq62kr46a",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.01637",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "math.ST"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.TH"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2611.01637",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8tnwdq62kr46a.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:21:10Z",
      "native_id": "2611.01637",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.01637"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:math.ST",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Moment-Orthogonal Quadratic-Envelope E-Processes for Anytime-Valid Location Inference",
  "title_text": "Moment-Orthogonal Quadratic-Envelope E-Processes for Anytime-Valid Location Inference",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T15:20:35Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8tnwdq62kr46a",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}