{
  "abstract": "Solar spicules are ubiquitous and strongly overlap in off-limb observations, which complicates the interpretation of individual events. We aim to infer population-level properties of spicules from IRIS Mg II k off-limb spectra using a forward model that explicitly accounts for line-of-sight superposition and instrumental effects. We constructed a stochastic 3D spicule-population model and synthesized Mg II k spectra with radiative transfer, including instrumental degradation and photon noise. We then constrained the hyperparameters that describe the underlying spicule population with likelihood-free Bayesian inference. This approach combines approximate Bayesian computation and an adaptive population Monte Carlo sampler, comparing observed and simulated datasets through principal-component summary statistics at five heights above the limb. The inferred posterior constrains effective population-level properties of the spicules that dominate the observed Mg II k variability and height dependence. These constraints provide a route to connect off-limb spectroscopy with forthcoming spectropolarimetric diagnostics of the chromosphere--corona interface.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.37811",
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Jiri Stepan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Stanislav Gunar"
    },
    {
      "name": "Akiko Tei"
    },
    {
      "name": "Petr Heinzel"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8vt3pkj5v10f7.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.37811",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8vt3pkj5v10f7",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37811",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.SR"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.37811",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-20",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8vt3pkj5v10f7.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:34:04Z",
      "native_id": "2609.37811",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37811"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.SR",
      "subfield": "stellar"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Solar spicule population properties inferred from IRIS Mg II k off-limb spectra using likelihood-free Bayesian inference",
  "title_text": "Solar spicule population properties inferred from IRIS Mg II k off-limb spectra using likelihood-free Bayesian inference",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:34:04Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8vt3pkj5v10f7",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}