{
  "abstract": "Summertime synoptic weather regulates Arctic land-ocean exchange through meteorological tides during the ice-free period, when the predominantly easterly regime of the Beaufort High is punctuated by episodic Arctic cyclones, changing coastal winds to westerlies. We analyze wind-driven exchange flows in a northern Alaska lagoon using a 26-year reconstruction (2000-2025) validated by new in situ observations and FVCOM simulations. Phase-space EOF analysis of ERA5 data links deep cyclonic anomalies to 89% of Extreme Eastward Throughflow (EET) events (24 of 27). Coastal easterly occurrence frequencies show a consistent decrease (up to 38.3% at > 10 m/s) while low-to-moderate westerly occurrence frequencies increase by up to 30.9% but decrease by 40.6% at extreme westerly wind speeds (>10 m/s). Offshore ERA5 wind occurrence frequencies increased, with extreme offshore events (> 10 m/s) increasing by 82.4%. Local ASOS observations reveal a near-monotonic ~88% reduction in atmospheric forcing variability (East-West Wind Excursion variability drops from 2.98X10^4 to 0.35X10^4 km). The In-Out Flow Excursion variability declines steadily by 70% from 1.40X10^3 to <0.40X10^3 km, while the positive (outward) flow ratio variability contracts steadily from 7.4% to below 2.2%. Extreme Westward Throughflow (EWT) events were infrequent, but were concentrated in the most recent period, with five of six events occurring in 2022-2024 and one in 2013. These results indicate that the summertime coastal regime remains predominantly easterly, but exhibits progressively lower variability, while the wind distribution shifts toward more frequent low-to-moderate westerlies. This evolution of weather-forcing state may impact flushing and biogeochemical connectivity of Arctic lagoon ecosystems.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.38763",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Chunyan Li"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8y69nxmn88tgx.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.38763",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "8y69nxmn88tgx",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38763",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.38763",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-30",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8y69nxmn88tgx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:25:49Z",
      "native_id": "2609.38763",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38763"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Long-term Variations of Cyclone-Influenced Exchange Flows in the Coastal Arctic in 2000-2025",
  "title_text": "Long-term Variations of Cyclone-Influenced Exchange Flows in the Coastal Arctic in 2000-2025",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:25:49Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/8y69nxmn88tgx",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}