{
  "abstract": "Food-system stress tests can misdirect warning and policy interpretation when current-state screening, prospective entry and post-entry escalation are treated as one problem. This study develops a task-specific framework that fixes each prediction origin, risk set, event window and outcome definition. It provides a unique conservative demand-capped allocation and a sufficient condition for module-input perturbations to preserve event membership. The empirical analysis uses precomputed fields for 218 countries in four six-step scenarios without executing the full operator architecture. Within this constructed system, origin-time disruption, exposure and buffer measures achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.835 for prospective Level-1 entry, versus 0.762 for initial score margin. Post-entry evidence was sparse: 81 of 135 Level-2 arrivals were same-step jumps, while a fixed three-step window contained 26 events from 11 countries. Added origin-time fields showed no stable improvement over Level-2 cutoff proximity. Reallocating 0.05 among component weights changed eligible origins from 156 to 319 and events from 17 to 59; outcome definitions therefore changed the estimand before model fitting. The framework supports internal stress testing, but performance does not establish real-world predictive validity. Operational use requires independent outcomes, externally fixed event definitions, scenario variation and longer follow-up.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China",
    "School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China",
    "Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Feng An"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Shuai Ren"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Xuyang Liu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Siyao Liu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Jingwen Cui"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/92enxc7g1qtcx.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3390/math14193441",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "92enxc7g1qtcx",
  "issns": [
    "2227-7390"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/19/3441",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2002|Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7215119425",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-22",
  "publisher": "MDPI AG",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/92enxc7g1qtcx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:29Z",
      "native_id": "10.3390/math14193441",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/14/19/3441"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "issn:2227-7390",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Food-System Stress Testing: Prediction Tasks Under Alternative Outcome Definitions",
  "title_text": "Food-System Stress Testing: Prediction Tasks Under Alternative Outcome Definitions",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:29Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/92enxc7g1qtcx",
  "venue": "Mathematics",
  "versions": []
}