{
  "abstract": "Sustainable water management needs spatially resolved withdrawal estimates, yet such data remain scarce worldwide. In Arizona, USA, decades of aquifer overdraft and Colorado River over-allocation have outpaced local withdrawal data, constraining policymaking. We present annual freshwater withdrawal and irrigation consumptive use estimates for Arizona at 2 km resolution over 1896–2099, partitioned by source (groundwater, surface water) and use (irrigation, non-irrigation). A machine learning model trained on flowmeter records (1984–2024) estimated total withdrawal, partitioned into eight withdrawal categories and three consumptive-use products. A stream capture index flags where groundwater withdrawal may deplete surface-water supplies. Because post-2026 Colorado River shortages are not yet set, projections are also provided under eight Central Arizona Project (CAP) shortage scenarios, up to a complete loss of CAP deliveries. Every product carries per-pixel uncertainty, and a well package disaggregates the predictions to ~170,000 registered consumptive wells. Outputs were validated against U.S. Geological Survey, Arizona Department of Water Resources, and CAP records. The dataset supports groundwater modeling, aquifer-depletion assessment, and water-resources planning in Arizona and its transboundary watersheds.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Sayantan Majumdar"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ryan G. Smith"
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter ReVelle"
    },
    {
      "name": "Md Fahim Hasan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Collin Wogenstahl"
    },
    {
      "name": "Danielle E. Tadych"
    },
    {
      "name": "Laney Meeker"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/97214raw3v5ty.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x56n63",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "97214raw3v5ty",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15475/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Arizona"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Central Arizona Project"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Colorado River shortage"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Earth Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Google Earth Engine"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Hydrology"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "OpenET"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "climate projections"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "groundwater management"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "groundwater withdrawal"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "irrigation consumptive use"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "machine learning"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "stream capture"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "streamflow depletion"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "surface water withdrawal"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "uncertainty quantification"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "water rights"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "water use"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2212|Water resources management and optimization"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221509912",
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/15475/download/26898/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-12",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/97214raw3v5ty.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:46Z",
      "native_id": "15475",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15475/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Hydrology",
      "subfield": "hydrology-soils"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Historical and projected freshwater withdrawals and irrigation consumptive use for Arizona, 1896–2099",
  "title_text": "Historical and projected freshwater withdrawals and irrigation consumptive use for Arizona, 1896–2099",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:46Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/97214raw3v5ty",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}