{
  "abstract": "Wildfire regimes in Northern California exhibit strong spatio-temporal variability, heavy-tailed fire size distributions, and sensitivity to climatic conditions. We develop a hierarchical statistical framework to model wildfire occurrence, geometry, and burned area in Northern California from 1984-2023. Fire centroids are modeled as a spatio-temporal point process with covariate-driven intensity, extended by a multiplicative gamma-based stochastic shock to better capture the distribution of monthly fire counts. Conditional on fire location, burned area polygons are represented using a parametric ellipse model that separates scale, shape, and orientation, with ellipse parameters estimated from standardized fire perimeters. Total burned area is modeled using a heteroskedastic lognormal regression incorporating climatic and spatial covariates, including vapor pressure deficit anomalies. The framework enables Monte Carlo simulation of wildfire processes and provides a probabilistic tool for assessing wildfire risk and cumulative burned area under observed climate variability.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.07431",
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Allyson Hineman"
    },
    {
      "name": "William Kleiber"
    },
    {
      "name": "Stephan Sain"
    },
    {
      "name": "Alexis Hoffman"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9970q6jx505pm.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.07431",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "9970q6jx505pm",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07431",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Fire effects on ecosystems"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7220986561",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.07431",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-05",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9970q6jx505pm.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:27:32Z",
      "native_id": "2610.07431",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07431"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "FireGen: Quantifying Wildfire Risk by Simulation",
  "title_text": "FireGen: Quantifying Wildfire Risk by Simulation",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:27:32Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9970q6jx505pm",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}