{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.5% to 55.6% (+24.0pp, n=117)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a NZDUSD LONG-only filter would have blocked the two NZDUSD SHORT trades in the window (one CLOSED/WIN via rizzy5m, one CLOSED/open via wkjudas). That removes a confirmed winner and likely removes another profitable or breakeven trade, so the immediate effect is negative — you lose at least one win and possibly two. The other pairs (USDCHF, EURJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY) are unaffected, so the net PnL delta in this window is negative, not positive.\n\nOVER-TIME PROJECTION: The backtest claims +24pp win rate on n=117, but that is a single-pair, single-direction slice — likely overfit to a specific regime (e.g., NZD strength period). Over 3–6 months, NZDUSD LONG may underperform if the kiwi weakens or if the filter simply removes SHORT trades that were actually profitable in other regimes. Risk: the\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9a8rk3274zzaw.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23526273",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "9a8rk3274zzaw",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23526273",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-21",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9a8rk3274zzaw.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T12:21:49Z",
      "native_id": "23526273",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23526273"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4480 HARMFUL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.5% to 55.6% (+24.0pp, n=117) — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4480 HARMFUL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.5% to 55.6% (+24.0pp, n=117) — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-04T12:21:49Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9a8rk3274zzaw",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}