{
  "abstract": "We present a novel, self-consistent, seminumeric Cosmic Dawn (CD) simulation in which small-scale star formation (SF) is calibrated to the AEOS and Renaissance hydrodynamic simulations. SF proceeds within dark matter (DM) haloes via neural network emulation while considering large-scale fluctuations in density and feedback. We translate the resulting 3D distribution of galaxies into predictions for the 21-cm brightness temperature, $\\delta T_{\\mathrm{b}}$, and power spectrum, $\\Delta ^2(k)$. We simulate several unique realizations to study the impact of varying astrophysics on $\\delta T_{\\mathrm{b}}$, finding that more efficient Population II (PopII) SF largely yields stronger Lyman-$\\alpha$ coupling, resulting in a shallower and wider absorption trough. However, we find that PopII SF dominates $\\Delta ^2(k)$ at $z \\lesssim 20$ and on smaller scales at intermediate redshifts ($k \\gtrsim 0.2\\ \\mathrm{Mpc^{-1}}$ at $z \\simeq 34{\\small -}20$) while Population III (PopIII) SF dominates $\\Delta ^2(k)$ at $z\\gtrsim 34$ and on larger scales at intermediate redshifts. Compared with previous works, we find that the combination of hydrodynamic SF calibration, a critical halo mass for SF considering $\\rm {H_{2}}$ self-shielding, and stochastic DM halo merger histories results in both earlier SF and higher SF rates across CD. Further, we find that the delay period separating PopIII and PopII SF ($t_{\\rm delay}$) significantly impacts $\\delta T_{\\mathrm{b}}$, and that one must include DM halo merger histories to properly account for this transition. Finally, we find our fiducial $\\delta T_{\\mathrm{b}}$ to be detectable at $z\\lesssim 25$ with 1080 h of HERA observations under moderate foreground assumptions, and the lack of such a detection at $z \\gtrsim 20$ would suggest $t_{\\rm delay}$ $\\gtrsim$ 30 Myr.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Physics, Stellenbosch University , 111 Merriman Ave, Stellenbosch, Western Cape 7600 ,",
    "Ritter Astrophysical Research Center, University of Toledo , 2855 W. Bancroft St, Toledo, OH 43606 ,"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Colton R Feathers",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9062-4615"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Eli Visbal",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8365-0337"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Steven G Murray",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3059-3823"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Ryan Hazlett",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1034-7986"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Yin-Zhe Ma",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8108-0986"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9b8c605ebm5c0.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1093/mnras/stag1833",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "9b8c605ebm5c0",
  "issns": [
    "0035-8711",
    "1365-2966"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stag1833/8916623",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221751636",
  "pdf_url": "https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/mnras/stag1833/71948408/stag1833.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-14",
  "publisher": "Oxford University Press (OUP)",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9b8c605ebm5c0.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:17Z",
      "native_id": "10.1093/mnras/stag1833",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stag1833/8916623"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "openalex:3103|Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena",
      "subfield": "galaxies"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Self-consistent simulations of the high-redshift 21-cm signal with star formation calibrated to hydrodynamic simulations",
  "title_text": "Self-consistent simulations of the high-redshift 21-cm signal with star formation calibrated to hydrodynamic simulations",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:17Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9b8c605ebm5c0",
  "venue": "Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society",
  "versions": []
}