{
  "abstract": "Background: This study aimed to assess whether the implementation of wealth-redistribution policies proposed in recent high-level international agreements to support development could mitigate the health impact of the current Official Development Assistance (ODA) defunding crisis.\n\nMethods: We conducted an integrated retrospective and forecasting analysis using longitudinal panel data from 59 low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). We estimated the association between per-capita ODA and mortality outcomes from 2002 to 2021 using two-way fixed-effects multivariable Poisson regression models with robust standard errors, adjusting for key demographic, socioeconomic, and health-system covariates. We then evaluated ten wealth-redistribution policies with validated country-level microsimulation models to forecast mortality under alternative wealth redistribution scenarios versus defunding through 2030.\n\nFindings: Higher ODA funding levels were associated with a 24% reduction in age-standardised all-cause mortality (rate ratio [RR]:0.76;95%CI:0.67-0.87) and a 33% reduction in under-five mortality (RR:0.67;95%CI:0.50-0.89). Forecasting analyses showed that under the current ODA funding reductions in LLMICs, all ten wealth redistribution policies were associated with millions of averted deaths by 2030: in all ages, from 6,591,984 (95%UI:4,884,075–8,374,138) for a 3% Crypto Tax of the top 10,000 holders to 29,509,934 (95%UI:20,273,842–38,603,961) for a 3% wealth tax on ultra-high-net-worth individuals; in children under-five, from 1,312,912 (95%UI:802,926–1,785,121) to 3,464,607 (95%UI:1,235,930–5,609,331), respectively.\n\nInterpretation: The implementation of wealth-redistribution policies proposed in recent high-level international agreements could mitigate the health consequences of the current ODA defunding crisis, avert millions of deaths, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.\n\nKey messages: • The implementation of wealth-redistribution policies proposed in recent high-level international agreements could fully mitigate the health consequences of the current ODA defunding crisis.\n\n• Wealth-redistribution policies proposed in recent high-level international agreements could avert millions of deaths, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": "abstract",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 10,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "G Barreix"
    },
    {
      "name": "R Anderle"
    },
    {
      "name": "A Ferreira"
    },
    {
      "name": "L Sales"
    },
    {
      "name": "D Pena"
    },
    {
      "name": "C Monti"
    },
    {
      "name": "C García-Vaz"
    },
    {
      "name": "L Esposito"
    },
    {
      "name": "Q Bassat"
    },
    {
      "name": "D Rasella"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9cy4tn3jq4z48.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.473",
  "fulltext_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13698568/",
  "id": "9cy4tn3jq4z48",
  "issns": [
    "1101-1262",
    "1464-360X"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.473",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "3. PARALLEL PROGRAMME"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/MED00860"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/SOC01210"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/SOC02610"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "O.8. Oral presentations: Governing public health in a data-driven polycrisis"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3303|International Development and Aid"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223693299",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13698568/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13698568",
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": "Oxford University Press",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9cy4tn3jq4z48.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:26Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13698568",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.473"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:21:31Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13698568",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13698568"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "Wealth Redistribution Policies to Mitigate the Impact of Development Assistance Defunding",
  "title_text": "Wealth Redistribution Policies to Mitigate the Impact of Development Assistance Defunding",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:35:24Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9cy4tn3jq4z48",
  "venue": "The European Journal of Public Health",
  "versions": []
}