{
  "abstract": "Electricity price forecasting (EPF) supports scheduling, bidding, and risk management in electricity markets, yet existing benchmarks focus mainly on numerical inputs, leaving the forecasting value of forecast-time textual context insufficiently evaluated. We introduce TRACE, a reproducible benchmark of 7,300 zone--day instances pairing prices from five zones in a major U.S. market with official operational text available at the forecast cutoff. TRACE reconstructs official operational text at each cutoff, preventing post-cutoff information leakage. We evaluate TRACE for semantic alignment and forecasting value. Semantic assessments align with central movement and both tail risks in ground-truth prices, most consistently for upper-tail price risk. Forecasting value is reflected in a median 7.4\\% reduction in upper-tail pinball loss across time-series foundation models. A controlled cross-day text-mismatch ablation reverses the gains, falling below the no-text baseline.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.02256",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Xinyi Yi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Zhangdie Yuan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ioannis Lestas"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9r9k1tkt4bj4m.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.02256",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "9r9k1tkt4bj4m",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02256",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ML"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2208|Energy Load and Power Forecasting"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7220435920",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.02256",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-17",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9r9k1tkt4bj4m.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:33:54Z",
      "native_id": "2610.02256",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02256"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.ML",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "TRACE: A Reproducible Benchmark for Electricity Price Forecasting with Official Operational Text",
  "title_text": "TRACE: A Reproducible Benchmark for Electricity Price Forecasting with Official Operational Text",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:33:54Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9r9k1tkt4bj4m",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}