{
  "abstract": "Background\n\nWhile ERCP is a cornerstone in the management of choledocholithiasis, a significant proportion of common bile duct (CBD) stones may clear spontaneously, prompting the need for better risk stratification. To identify independent clinical, biochemical, and radiologic predictors of spontaneous CBD stone clearance in patients referred for ERCP.Methods\n\nIn this retrospective study, 324 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis were evaluated. Demographics, symptoms, laboratory values, imaging findings, and ERCP outcomes were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify predictors of spontaneous stone passage, defined as the absence of CBD stones during ERCP despite prior radiologic or biochemical suspicion.Results\n\nSpontaneous clearance occurred in 41.4% of patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex (OR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.3-3.4), CBD diameter ≥7 mm (OR = 2.9; 95% CI: 1.7-5.0), and normalization of liver enzymes prior to ERCP (OR = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-3.0) were significant independent predictors. Stone size, number, and comorbidities were not statistically significant in predicting clearance.Conclusion\n\nA combination of male sex, CBD dilation, and biochemical normalization strongly predicts spontaneous CBD stone clearance. Incorporating these variables into clinical decision-making may help avoid unnecessary ERCPs, reducing patient risk and enhancing procedural efficiency. Prospective validation of these predictors is warranted to develop evidence-based risk models.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Internal Medicine, Ayatollah Rohani Hospital, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Mazandaran, Iran.",
    "Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Health Research Institute, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran."
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Mohammad Taghi Hamidian"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Javad Shokry Shirvany"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Maede Rajabi Fomashi"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Ali Bijani"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Seyed Hassan Abedi Valoukolaei"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9tdbvt38parh0.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.22088/cjim.17.3.555",
  "fulltext_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13689518",
  "id": "9tdbvt38parh0",
  "issns": [
    "2008-6164",
    "2008-6172"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42923643",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2740|Gallbladder and Bile Duct Disorders"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7217218902",
  "pdf_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13689518?pdf=render",
  "pmcid": "PMC13689518",
  "pmid": "42923643",
  "published": "2026-09-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9tdbvt38parh0.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:21:02Z",
      "native_id": "MED:42923643",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42923643"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2740|Gallbladder and Bile Duct Disorders",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "When to wait and when to intervene: A retrospective study on predicting spontaneous clearance of common bile duct stones in ERCP candidates.",
  "title_text": "When to wait and when to intervene: A retrospective study on predicting spontaneous clearance of common bile duct stones in ERCP candidates.",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:21:02Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9tdbvt38parh0",
  "venue": "Caspian journal of internal medicine",
  "versions": []
}