{ "abstract": "Many autistic people have challenges with adaptive function, impacting education, employment and independent-living goals. Adaptive function outcomes of autistic people vary considerably, which makes planning for future needs challenging. Here, using a developmentally sensitive approach, we investigated if cortico-cortical functional connectivity - a core neurobiological feature that differs in autism - could predict longitudinal changes in adaptive function in autistic people. Using electroencephalography in 150 autistic and 159 non-autistic participants aged 6-31 years, we investigated if mean degree and network organisation (small-world index) predict longitudinal changes in adaptive function over 19-months. We found that small-world index significantly predicted changes in adaptive function in autistic people across the entire age-range. Predictive performance was best for autistic youth (15-24-year-olds), where mean degree and small-world index explained 21 and 30% of additional variance in outcomes, respectively, outperforming measures of intelligence and autistic features. In categorising binary (improved versus not-improved) outcomes, the model containing mean degree had an AUC of 0.84 [95% CI: 0.71-0.97] in 15-24-year-olds, while that containing small-world index had an AUC of 0.76 [95% CI: 0.63-0.89] across the 6-31-year age-range. Both metrics demonstrated properties desired in prognostic biomarkers: high test-retest reliability and convergence with underlying biology (significant associations with genetic variation in brain volume-related genes). Thus, we demonstrate the first evidence that electroencephalography-derived functional connectivity metrics show promise as prognostic biomarkers of adaptive function in autistic people. Potential precision-medicine applications include stratifying participants in clinical trials and identifying those at risk of declining function in clinical settings.", "abstract_shown": true, "affiliations": [ "Department of Forensic and Neurodevelopmental Sciences, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK. chirag.1.mehra@kcl.ac.uk.", "Wolfson Neurodisability Service, Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK. chirag.1.mehra@kcl.ac.uk.", "Department of Basic and Clinical Neuroscience, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.", "Department of Biostatistics & Health Informatics, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.", "Roche Pharma Research and Early Development, Neuroscience and Rare Diseases, Roche Innovation Center Basel, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., Basel, Switzerland.", "Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA.", "Department of Pediatrics at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois, USA.", "Department of Forensic and Neurodevelopmental Sciences, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.", "Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.", "Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.", "MRC Centre for Developmental Neurobiology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.", "Department of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.", "Human Genetics and Cognitive Functions, Institut Pasteur, UMR3571 CNRS, Université de Paris, 75015, Paris, France.", "Department of Medical Neuroscience, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, Netherlands.", "Department of Women and Children's Health, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.", "Children's Neurosciences, Evelina London Children's Hospital at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.", "Department of Early Life Imaging, School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK." ], "article_type": "research article", "arxiv": null, "author_total": 15, "authors": [ { "affs": [ 0, 1 ], "name": "Chirag Mehra", "orcid": "0000-0002-4387-4926" }, { "affs": [ 2, 3 ], "name": "Petroula Laiou" }, { "affs": [ 4 ], "name": "Pilar Garcés" }, { "affs": [ 5, 6 ], "name": "Joshua B Ewen" }, { "affs": [ 7 ], "name": "Eva Loth", "orcid": "0000-0001-9458-9167" }, { "affs": [ 8 ], "name": "Mark H Johnson", "orcid": "0000-0003-4229-2585" }, { "affs": [ 7 ], "name": "Luke Mason" }, { "affs": [ 9, 10 ], "name": "Emily Jh Jones" }, { "affs": [ 11 ], "name": "Tony Charman", "orcid": "0000-0003-1993-6549" }, { "affs": [ 12 ], "name": "Thomas Bourgeron" }, { "affs": [ 13 ], "name": "Jan Buitelaar", "orcid": "0000-0001-8288-7757" }, { "affs": [ 14, 15 ], "name": "Michael Absoud" }, { "affs": [ 2 ], "name": "Mark P Richardson" }, { "affs": [ 7 ], "name": "Declan Murphy", "orcid": "0000-0002-6664-7451" }, { "affs": [ 7, 10, 16 ], "name": "Jonathan O'Muircheartaigh" } ], "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9wd5fzkq8kkgt.bib", "cited_by": 0, "doi": "10.1038/s41398-026-04422-7", "fulltext_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13752263", "id": "9wd5fzkq8kkgt", "issns": [ "2158-3188" ], "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/43009499", "language": "eng", "licence": "CC-BY", "licence_label": "CC BY", "licence_source": "article", "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "metadata_licence": null, "native_subjects": [ [ "openalex", "2805|Autism Spectrum Disorder Research" ] ], "openalex": "W7212042816", "pdf_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13752263?pdf=render", "pmcid": "PMC13752263", "pmid": "43009499", "published": "2026-09-09", "publisher": null, "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9wd5fzkq8kkgt.ris", "sources": [ { "first_seen": "2026-11-12T15:22:43Z", "native_id": "MED:43009499", "source": "europepmc", "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/43009499" } ], "subjects": [ { "field": "biology", "origin": "openalex:2805|Autism Spectrum Disorder Research", "subfield": "neuroscience" } ], "title": "EEG functional connectivity as a prognostic biomarker of adaptive function in autistic people.", "title_text": "EEG functional connectivity as a prognostic biomarker of adaptive function in autistic people.", "type": "peer-reviewed", "updated_at": "2026-11-13T03:20:44Z", "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/9wd5fzkq8kkgt", "venue": "Translational psychiatry", "versions": [] }