{
  "abstract": "We developed a one-dimensional Madelung-type model to test whether seismic activation dynamics improve agreement with future earthquake distributions beyond empirical baselines. The model couples activation density, activation-flow velocity, effective loading, structural heterogeneity, and a curvature-sensitive potential. Synthetic simulations examined localization, while temporally separated United States Geological Survey (USGS) Japan–western Pacific catalog tests compared the model with persistence and historical relative intensity. Principal component analysis (PCA) preprocessing excluded holdout data, and weak-evolution parameters were calibrated independently on 2022 data. On the July–December 2023 complete-catalog holdout, weak evolution underperformed persistence on most metrics, including Pearson correlation (0.4156 versus 0.4837); paired moving-block bootstrap intervals for correlation and cosine differences included zero. In January–June 2023, several continuous metrics improved over persistence, but operating-point results remained mixed. Declustering favored weak evolution over persistence on most metrics, while relative intensity retained higher Pearson and Spearman correlations. Removing the curvature term produced stronger concentration, indicating a regularizing rather than uniquely focusing role. Grid refinement revealed resolution sensitivity in strong evolution. These results support a mechanistic and numerical proof of concept whose empirical performance depends on catalog treatment, forecast window, and metric; they do not establish robust earthquake forecast superiority.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași, 700505 Iași, Romania",
    "National Institute of Research and Development for Technical Physics, IFT Iași, 700050 Iași, Romania",
    "Clinical Emergency Hospital Prof. Dr. Nicolae Oblu Iași, 700309 Iași, Romania",
    "Faculty of Physics, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, 700506 Iași, Romania",
    "Department of Environmental Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Agritourism, Faculty of Engineering, Vasile Alecsandri University of Bacău, 600115 Bacău, Romania",
    "National Meteorological Administration, Bacău Regional Forecast Center, 600234 Bacău, Romania",
    "Department of Biophysics and Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, Grigore T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy Iasi, 700115 Iași, Romania",
    "Department of Biophysics, Faculty of Dental Medicine, Grigore T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy Iasi, 700115 Iași, Romania"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 9,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Dragos Nica"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Călin Gheorghe Buzea",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2791-3400"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Alina Stefania Dobos"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Dragos Ioan Rusu",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5485-0620"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Adrian Timofte"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Diana-Corina Bostan",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4312-3281"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Vlad Ghizdovat",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8233-8862"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Maricel Agop"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7
      ],
      "name": "Decebal Vasincu",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7139-0304"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a2r05wq60f8a7.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3390/fractalfract10100718",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "a2r05wq60f8a7",
  "issns": [
    "2504-3110"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3110/10/10/718",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "1908|earthquake and tectonic studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221657091",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-13",
  "publisher": "MDPI AG",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a2r05wq60f8a7.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:32Z",
      "native_id": "10.3390/fractalfract10100718",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3110/10/10/718"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1908|earthquake and tectonic studies",
      "subfield": "geophysics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A Reduced Madelung-Type Model for Seismic Activation: Localization Dynamics and Baseline-Aware Validation",
  "title_text": "A Reduced Madelung-Type Model for Seismic Activation: Localization Dynamics and Baseline-Aware Validation",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:32Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a2r05wq60f8a7",
  "venue": "Fractal and Fractional",
  "versions": []
}