{
  "abstract": "We present a detailed comparison of Bayesian criteria with three non-informative priors - flat, Jeffreys, and scale-invariant - for testing a signal against an unknown background and compare them with the classical frequentist Li-Ma approach in the On/Off problem. We perform Monte Carlo simulations for various background levels and evaluate the Li-Ma and Bayesian criteria by their Type I error rates. We then simulate a nonzero signal and compare the criteria in terms of Type II error rates. We find that both the Li-Ma criterion and the Bayesian criterion with the Jeffreys prior control Type I error well, excluding the case of small background $b < 0.5$; the Bayesian criterion with the Jeffreys prior is statistically more powerful than the Li-Ma criterion for $b \\lesssim 40$.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.11683",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Gleb Babenov"
    },
    {
      "name": "Petr Satunin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a75agbkfpj3g8.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.11683",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "a75agbkfpj3g8",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11683",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.IM"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "hep-ex"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.data-an"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2613|Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7212287953",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.11683",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-17",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a75agbkfpj3g8.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:22:19Z",
      "native_id": "2609.11683",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11683"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.IM",
      "subfield": "instrumentation-methods"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.data-an",
      "subfield": "computational"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:hep-ex",
      "subfield": "high-energy"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Bayesian Superiority in On/Off analysis",
  "title_text": "Bayesian Superiority in On/Off analysis",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:22:19Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a75agbkfpj3g8",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}