{
  "abstract": "Climate-risk assessments in tropical wetlands increasingly combine hydroclimatic and land-cover data, but rarely integrate them with structured community evidence on experienced impacts and adaptation priorities. We address this gap in six communities around the Complejo Cenagoso de Zapatosa, a Ramsar site, and the Morales wetland in the Colombian Caribbean. We integrated hydroclimatic records and climate-extreme indices (1991-2020), land-cover change and runoff-potential analysis (1991-2020), flood-susceptibility modelling, and structured participatory evidence from 106 participants. Mean annual temperature increased by 0.4 °C decade⁻¹, while warm nights and warm days increased by 17.1% and 17.3% decade⁻¹, respectively; precipitation and precipitation-extreme indices showed no significant domain-mean trends. Forest cover declined by 1,122.9 km², whereas flooded non-forest formations, agriculture/pasture mosaic, and oil palm increased by 800.9, 254.4, and 244.2 km², respectively, altering runoff potential. Flood susceptibility was concentrated along floodplains and wetland margins (AUC = 0.95). Of 50 valid community-reported extreme-event records, 76.0% matched the expected sign of annual instrumental anomalies; both heat records matched, while agreement reached 91.3% for floods and 53.8% for droughts. Drought mismatches indicate that annual rainfall anomalies incompletely capture wetland drought, where dry-spell persistence, water-level change, and livelihood disruption shape local experience. Community priorities emphasized wetland restoration, hydrological connectivity, fisheries governance, livelihood diversification, and monitoring. Integrating technical and community evidence therefore revealed complementary climate-risk signals and the conditions under which ecosystem-based adaptation may be locally feasible.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Universidad del Rosario"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Juliana M. Estrada-Zuleta"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Julián E Meneses Bernal"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Alvaro Avila-Diaz",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0404-4559"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Benjamin Quesada",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8827-4801"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a7c5n0g50ben6.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1088/1748-9326/aeba00",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "a7c5n0g50ben6",
  "issns": [
    "1748-9326"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeba00",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2212|Wetland Management and Conservation"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223929042",
  "pdf_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeba00/pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-27",
  "publisher": "IOP Publishing",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a7c5n0g50ben6.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:20:55Z",
      "native_id": "10.1088/1748-9326/aeba00",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeba00"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "issn:1748-9326",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Climate risk assessment in tropical wetlands through integrated hydroclimatic, land cover, and community knowledge",
  "title_text": "Climate risk assessment in tropical wetlands through integrated hydroclimatic, land cover, and community knowledge",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:20:55Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/a7c5n0g50ben6",
  "venue": "Environmental Research Letters",
  "versions": []
}