{
  "abstract": "Humanoid robots are increasingly discussed not only as machines but also as a potential technological population. We develop a nonlinear population-dynamical framework to examine their possible diffusion relative to humans, without assuming that large-scale adoption or numerical crossover is inevitable. The human population $H(t)$ is calibrated to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 median trajectory. The android population $A(t)$ is represented through the normalized stock $a=A/A_s$. A conventional, human-organized manufacturing and adoption channel is calibrated to a conditional scenario spanning approximately $10^4$ humanoids in 2025 to $10^9$ in 2050 and follows $\\dot a=(q_M+r_Ma)\\exp(K_Ma^γ)$. We separately introduce a hypothetical autonomous channel in which installed androids contribute materially to producing additional androids. Under the minimal canonical TZ closure, the corresponding production--feedback number is $\\mathcal{P}(a)=(r_A/δ_A)\\exp(K_Ra)$, where $r_A$ is the gross robot-mediated production coefficient, $δ_A$ the retirement rate, and $K_R$ the autonomous feedback parameter. This channel is locally self-amplifying if and only if $\\mathcal{P}>1$, whereas numerical human--android parity, $A=H$, is a separate cumulative condition. Global uncertainty analysis shows that crossover dates remain strongly scenario-dependent, while the production--feedback threshold is more robust. An extreme early-autonomy stress test can produce parity by 2050, but this represents a conditional dynamical boundary rather than a technological forecast.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2611.03242",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Alessio Zaccone"
    },
    {
      "name": "Thomas Tunstall"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jesse H. Ausubel"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/abh9j8yt5nx4h.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2611.03242",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "abh9j8yt5nx4h",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.03242",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cond-mat.dis-nn"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cond-mat.stat-mech"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "nlin.AO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.bio-ph"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.soc-ph"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2611.03242",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-02",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/abh9j8yt5nx4h.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:21:04Z",
      "native_id": "2611.03242",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.03242"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.bio-ph",
      "subfield": "biological-medical"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:cond-mat.dis-nn",
      "subfield": "condensed-matter"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:cond-mat.stat-mech",
      "subfield": "statistical-nonlinear"
    }
  ],
  "title": "When will androids outnumber humans?",
  "title_text": "When will androids outnumber humans?",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T15:20:21Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/abh9j8yt5nx4h",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}